After a crushing defeat to Pittsburgh Saturday, No. 12 Duke is back in action against Louisville Tuesday night. Ahead of the matchup, the Blue Zone is here with some can’t-miss prop bets:
Duke (-14) vs. Louisville
Duke will enter Tuesday’s matchup with a sour taste in its mouth after suffering a home defeat against ACC foe Pittsburgh just three days prior. With senior guard Jeremy Roach and sophomore forward Mark Mitchell both out with injuries, the Blue Devils were stagnant offensively, giving up a costly 11 turnovers. On the other side of the ball, Duke struggled to contain the Panthers from beyond the arc, as a Herculean 7-for-7 3-point shooting performance by Pittsburgh forward Blake Hinson proved to be too much to overcome.
Louisville, however, is trending down. The Cardinals are coming off a 25-point rout against Wake Forest, where they allowed the Deacons to shoot 18-of-35 from three, just one shy of their program record. Sitting at 1-6 in ACC play, they also boast the conference’s worst point differential. Ultimately, there is a substantial talent gap between the two teams, and a weak Louisville group should provide the Blue Devils with a good opportunity to bounce back. The Cardinals can score in bunches, but do not have nearly enough offensive firepower to keep up with Duke nor the defensive versatility to contain it. Expect the Blue Devils to take care of business on the road.
Pick: Duke -14
Over/Under 150 total points
Duke certainly struggled to find an offensive rhythm Saturday but now faces a dream matchup against a porous Louisville defense. The Cardinals have allowed an ACC-worst 77.8 points per game and rank 243rd in KenPom adjusted defensive rating. Louisville also commits over 12 turnovers per game, which should allow the Blue Devils to have some opportunities on the fast break. The bigger question will be whether the Cardinals can put up some points themselves. Louisville likes to play fast and are likely top-5 in the ACC in pace of play. It simply hasn’t been hitting its shots as of late, going 18.2% from three Saturday at Wake Forest. However, led by a young guard trio of Mike James, Skyy Clark and Tre White, who all have favorable splits at home, the Cardinals should be able to knock down some shots Tuesday night. Duke’s defense has also slipped to 37th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, so expect this to be a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 150 total points
Kyle Filipowski over/under 9.5 rebounds
The 7-foot sophomore is coming off an uncharacteristically weak five-rebound game but has a nice opportunity to get back on track Tuesday. Since Louisville likes to push the pace, it often employs a four-guard starting lineup, with 6-foot-10 forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield being the only true frontcourt player on the floor. With Mark Mitchell’s availability still in question, Filipowski should be in line to play upwards of 30 minutes. Against the Cardinals last season, the Westtown, N.Y., native collected seven rebounds in just 23 minutes while sharing frontcourt responsibilities with Mitchell as well as future NBA first-round draft pick Dereck Lively II. Now, facing an even smaller Louisville outfit and having drastically less competition for playing time, Filipowski is in the perfect spot for a trademark double-double performance.
Pick: Over 9.5 rebounds
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