Third and goal: Better passing coverage, winning the fourth quarter critical for Duke victory against North Carolina

After a last-second win against Wake Forest, Duke football is on the road again to take on No. 24 North Carolina with the Victory Bell hanging in the balance. The Blue Zone provides three keys to a Blue Devil win:

Tighten up passing coverage

Duke’s passing coverage has struggled in its last few games, especially when compared to the efficiency it displayed early on in the season. Playing North Carolina means facing the elite Tar Heel offense, led by the accurate arm of Drake Maye. The North Carolina quarterback has given his opponents’ passing defenses a run for their money all season. The Huntersville, N.C., native currently sits at second in the ACC for total QBR and has racked up an impressive 2,803 passing yards in the 2023 campaign thus far. Maye has all the momentum on his side, coming off a hot game against Campbell with four touchdown passes, tying his season high. Containing the redshirt sophomore will be essential for the Blue Devil defense, and they can do this by tightening up their inefficient passing coverage. This will force Maye and the Tar Heels’ offense to make riskier throws, which has led to interceptions for them in the past — a perfect weakness for Duke to exploit. With the passing lanes closed, North Carolina may also focus more on the run game that the Blue Devils have proven more than capable of stopping throughout the season. Shutting down Maye to get the Tar Heels’ offense off the field will help keep the Blue Devils stay in control of the game. 

Win the fourth quarter

The story of Duke football in the fourth quarter has either been heartbreaking or exhilarating. Against Notre Dame, just as Blue Devil students prepared to rush the field, the potential upset fell apart in the final seconds of the game. Duke's fourth quarter woes continued when it gave up 21 points against Florida State in the fourth quarter, yielding the lead and losing the contest. Conversely, against Wake Forest, the Blue Devils held firm, not allowing the Demon Deacons to score in the final 15 minutes of the matchup. The team also scored 10 points in the final quarter, including the go-ahead field goal by Todd Pelino to win the game. Since so many of its games come down to the wire, winning the fourth quarter will be absolutely necessary to ensure a Duke victory. 

Rely on the Run

With starting quarterback Riley Leonard likely out due to injury again, freshman Grayson Loftis will probably start his second game for the Blue Devils. As a result, the passing game may be somewhat limited, and the running game will be vital for Duke. The Blue Devils gained 202 yards in their last game against Wake Forest. Replicating that performance on the run will help light the offensive spark necessary to energize an offense that has not been the same since Leonard exited the game against the Seminoles. Duke’s core offensive identity, even when its star quarterback was healthy, has been as a team that thrives on the run. 

Additionally, North Carolina has generally been weaker on the rushing coverage. It gave up 228 rushing yards in its loss to Virginia and another 348 yards at Georgia Tech. If the Blue Devils' running backs like Jordan Waters exploit this weakness in the Tar Heels’ rushing defense, Duke will find the key to its offensive success.