In a short week after a demoralizing loss to Louisville, Duke once again proved its resilience, knocking off Wake Forest 24-21 last Thursday night to move to 6-3 on the season, clinching bowl eligibility. While the dream of an ACC Championship berth is likely dead, the Blue Devils still have a chance to reach nine regular-season wins, one more than last year and a milestone that would offer a chance for the programs first 10-win season since 2013. That quest continues this weekend with a matchup that is sure to be a tense one, as Duke will travel to Chapel Hill Saturday for a chance to bring the Victory Bell back to Durham for the first time since 2018.
Let’s look at what problems North Carolina could present.
After starting out the season 6-0, the 24th-ranked Tar Heels have had a tumultuous past few weeks. Coming off a big win against Miami, North Carolina floundered in back-to-back weeks, dropping games to ACC foes Virginia and Georgia Tech to essentially knock them out of College Football Playoff contention. However, the Tar Heels are still no slouch, rebounding from those two losses to destroy Campbell 59-7 last weekend to move to 7-2 on the season. Despite the turbulence, head coach Mack Brown’s group boasts one of the best offenses in the nation yet again, with a defense that has made some improvements compared to 2022.
Put simply, the Tar Heels go as Drake Maye goes. The quarterback is one of the best signal callers in the nation, possessing elite arm talent that will likely land him in the top-five selections of the upcoming NFL Draft.
Last season, Maye put together one of the best quarterback seasons in North Carolina history, earning himself ACC Player of the Year, ACC Offensive Player of the Year, ACC Rookie of the Year and ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year, becoming the second-ever player to do so along with Jameis Winston, who went on to win the Heisman Trophy and a national championship in 2013. This is no coincidence, as the Huntersville, N.C., native is one the most talented quarterbacks the NCAA has seen in recent memory, putting the country on alert in 2022 as he threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns, while adding 698 yards and seven scores on the ground.
In his redshirt sophomore campaign, Maye has been similarly potent, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,803 yards and 20 touchdowns up to this point in the season. While his numbers will likely finish a smidge lower than last season, that is largely a result of playcalling and not Maye’s level of play. The reigning conference player of the year has shown his capability to take over a game at any moment throughout the season, most notably in a 40-7 blowout win against Syracuse where he accounted for 497 yards and four scores total.
However, Maye is not invincible, and his kryptonite this season has been turnovers, falling victim to interceptions in multiple key moments, including the final drive against Virginia. For a Duke defense that is known for forcing turnovers, this aspect of the game should be a major focus this week for the Blue Devils.
Maye is spectacular, but he also benefits from the abundance of weapons that the Tar Heel offense possesses. The roster is chock-full of talented pass catchers, with receivers J.J. Jones and Nate McCollum as solid deep threats and tight end Bryson Nesbit as one of the best at his position in the league, hauling in 29 receptions so far this season. While North Carolina has not struggled to score at any point this year, its offense got even more deadly with the midseason addition of wideout Devontez Walker, who already has 438 yards and six touchdowns through five games played.
“I think it all starts with the quarterback Drake Maye who's an extremely talented young man, plays the game really well. He's extremely competitive, he's athletic, can throw the ball all over the place,” Duke head coach Mike Elko said at his weekly press conference. “He's got a plethora of weapons on the outside. Tez Walker, J.J. Jones, do a really good job of creating separation and making big plays down the field, Nate McCollum has been a really explosive slot.”
Oftentimes when a team is so potent at throwing the football, it is at the detriment of the rushing game. This is not the case for the Tar Heels, though, as running back Omarion Hampton has been dominant in his sophomore campaign. After rushing for 401 yards and six touchdowns in his first year in Chapel Hill, the Clayton, N.C., native has taken on a bigger role this season, tallying 1,067 yards and 12 scores on 6.1 yards per carry. For a Duke defense that has struggled against star running backs this season, Hampton could be a major problem.
For all its offensive talent, over the last two years, defense has not been a calling card for North Carolina. In 2022, the Tar Heels were dead last in scoring defense in the ACC, allowing an abysmal 30.8 points per game. In 2023, this mark has improved to 23.3 points per game, good for seventh in the conference, but it has not been without some major struggles. North Carolina has allowed 24 points or more in five of its contests, including 46 to Georgia Tech. For a Duke offense that will be led by inexperienced quarterback Grayson Loftis, facing a leaky Tar Heel defense could be a boon to the Blue Devils Saturday.
While the unit as a whole is not spectacular, North Carolina still possesses two of the league’s best defenders in Cedric Gray and Kaimon Rucker. Gray, who is also a team captain, is the quarterback of the Tar Heel defense and excels in his role. Last season, the Charlotte native was named to the All-ACC First Team after racking up 145 tackles. In his senior campaign, Gray is putting together another impressive season, already accounting for 85 tackles. Up front, Rucker has been a breakout star for North Carolina, becoming one of the most dangerous pass rushers in the conference. The Hartwell, Ga., native ranks third in the conference with eight sacks and has game-breaking potential, evidenced by his 2.5-sack performance against a talented Miami offense.
“Defensively, just an extremely athletic, talented group,” Elko said of the North Carolina defense. “I think when you look at them, certainly there's talent everywhere at every level of this defense. Up front, a lot of length, a lot of size, a lot of athleticism, a lot of ability.”
Duke will have its hands full when it travels to Chapel Hill this Saturday. But if the Blue Devils can find a way to contain Maye and effectively move the ball against a mediocre defense, the Victory Bell wagon may be painted dark blue once again.
“Obviously everybody knows what this game means and what this game is about around here. It's an opportunity for our seniors to go and compete and try to get the bell and bring the bell back here to Durham,” Elko said. “And so that's not something that we take lightly, we understand how important that is to our fans, our alumni, and all the people associated with Duke football.”
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.