Duke travels to Georgia Tech Saturday for its second ACC contest of the season. The Blue Zone has some can’t-lose prop bets:
Duke (-3.5) vs Georgia Tech
Duke should cover the spread in Atlanta. On paper, the Blue Devils have a clear advantage, both offensively and defensively. Duke fields the nation’s 27th-best rushing attack, while Georgia Tech’s run defense has been bottom-25 this season, allowing 188.8 yards per game. Expect Jaylen Coleman and Jordan Waters to dominate on the ground. The Yellow Jackets have a +7 turnover margin which ranks them ninth in the nation; the offense has frequently had a shorter distance to drive. Unluckily for them, Duke has only turned the ball over twice this season, giving it the edge. The Blue Devil's chance to spread looks even better given their advantage on the defensive side of the ball—they rank 28th in scoring defense while the Yellow Jackets offense ranks 123rd. Georgia Tech is 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 games following a win, and they beat then-No. 24 Pittsburgh last week. Duke is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 meetings with Georgia Tech. Expect the Blue Devils to control this game from start to finish and cover the spread.
Pick: Duke -3.5
Over/Under 55 total points
Although the Duke offense has demonstrated its prowess, this matchup against Georgia Tech has “under” written all over it. The Yellow Jacket offense has managed a measly 16.2 points per game this season, meaning it would take either an uncharacteristic offensive display from Georgia Tech or an absolute rout by Duke to exceed 55 points, neither of which are particularly likely. The Yellow Jackets and their opponents haven’t combined for more than 52 points this season, and there is nothing to suggest that should change in this game. Furthermore, this contest will likely be dominated by the run, which should drain the clock and limit the opportunities for either offense to put up big numbers.
Pick: Under 55
Jeff Sims over/under 1.5 passing touchdowns
The Yellow Jacket's offense resembles a less high-powered version of the Jalon Daniels-led Kansas squad that exposed head coach Mike Elko’s defense in Week 4. Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims has only averaged 168.2 passing yards per game, but is a large presence in a rushing attack that thrives off of the dual-threat quarterback. Despite the diversity of his game, Sims has only scored 4 total touchdowns this year, and it is unlikely he will add two more to that total Saturday, especially not through the air. The Blue Devil’s defense will have learned from their mistakes against Daniels and shut down Sims on Saturday.
Pick: Under 1.5
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