2021 season: 6-7, 3-5 in the ACC (5th in the Coastal Division)
Head coach: Mack Brown (14th season)
The Tar Heels have already started their season, defeating Florida A&M 56-24 last weekend. Prior to the game, 26 Rattlers were ruled ineligible to play in the game, and 20 eventually missed the game, including 2021 FCS sacks leader linebacker Isaiah Land and a significant number of offensive linemen.
All the credit in the world to the admirable fight the Rattlers’ put up, but North Carolina was not expected to give up 24 points to an FCS team, let alone a handicapped one.
This is all to say, similar struggles as last season or worse could be in the Tar Heels’ future. The 2021 season yielded head coach Mack Brown’s second losing season since 1989, and though the program has improved during his tenure—it is a combined 22-17 since his takeover in 2019 after going 2-9 the year prior—there are plenty of obstacles that could halt, or at least pause, that trajectory this season.
First, almost all of the Tar Heels’ offensive stats leaders have graduated. The most glaring loss is that of quarterback Sam Howell. Howell holds numerous North Carolina football records and is now likely the Washington Commanders’ backup quarterback for the 2022 NFL season. Despite team struggles, Howell clearly leaves big shoes for new starting quarterback Drake Maye to fill.
If that name is familiar, it’s because he’s the younger brother of North Carolina basketball great Luke Maye and son of 1980s Tar Heels football star Mark Maye.
Of the four Tar Heels with triple-digit rushing yards in 2021, only junior running back DJ Jones returns, who logged 253. Luckily for North Carolina, junior wide receiver Josh Downs is still on the roster after going for 1,335 yards on 101 receptions last season. After sustaining a knee injury in the season opener, it’s likely he’s available by the time the Tar Heels make their way to Durham Oct. 15. The next two leading receivers from a year ago have departed the program, with Antoine Greene graduating and Emery Simmons transferring to Indiana.
Of course, the new starters have plenty of experience on the field and with Brown’s system, so it’s not like the Tar Heels won’t know which way is up. Given the roster turnover, however, it will be hard to just pick up where they left off and see meaningful improvement barring Drake Maye finding greatness like his father in just his first year starting.
The defense, on the other hand, returns a decent portion of its personnel, but those players will need to step up their game in 2022 for North Carolina to have any chance of improving its record. The Tar Heels gave up the third-most points per game in the conference last season, only leading Duke and Georgia Tech. This season, the Tar Heels’ subpar defensive performance against Florida A&M was made even more distressing by an injury to junior cornerback Tony Grimes, one of the team’s best defenders in 2021. Like Downs, Grimes is likely to return by the Tobacco Road rivalry game.
Overall, though North Carolina will likely struggle to meet its own standards over the course of the season, when it comes time to face the Blue Devils, it should still be able to pull out a win. Whether the margin replicates last year’s 38-7 Tar Heel win, however, depends on how well each team puts it all together within their respective program rebuilds.
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Sasha Richie is a Trinity senior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.