The Blue Zone is back with our prop bets for Duke's last regular season matchup with North Carolina.
UNC (-2.5) vs. Duke
Leading up to Friday afternoon’s line announcement, a short advantage in favor of the Tar Heels was to be expected. While they have been remarkably inconsistent in recent outings, quality wins over the likes of Florida State and Louisville have many looking past a pair of tough losses to Syracuse and Marquette. I, however, still have my doubts about Roy Williams’ squad and their ability to perform on a regular basis, and am not so sure that the Tar Heels have earned this line heading into Saturday night.
Duke is fresh off a pair of devastating overtime losses to Louisville and Georgia Tech, respectively. But before that, the Blue Devils were riding high on a four-game win streak highlighted by a breathtaking finish in a 66-65 victory over then-No. 7 Virginia. Just like the Tar Heels, the Blue Devils have flexed their muscles on occasion while also struggling to sustain high level play, as we saw this week. So, although it may seem like everything has changed for Duke and North Carolina since they last met, and the stakes are certainly higher, things feel more or less the same.
On their homecourt, the Blue Devils were favored by 3.5 points, and with these two teams still evenly matched, I see no reason for such a large change this time around, even in the Dean Dome. This game should be a coin flip on a neutral floor, and the Tar Heels do deserve a slight advantage in Chapel Hill. In what will be a decidedly intense playoff environment, this game will surely come down to the wire as it did in the first meeting, and as it seemingly always does. Regardless of the outcome, you are going to want the free bucket when this one's forever: take the Blue Devils, grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.
Pick: Duke +2.5
Over/Under 151.0 Points
Although Duke’s most recent two losses flew past the total in overtime, the Blue Devils have only eclipsed 151 points during regulation in one of its last six games. This opener is high, and Duke games quite simply have been coming nowhere close to touching it. North Carolina games, on the other hand, have hovered right around this number since last month’s track meet in Cameron Indoor Stadium, in which the total closed at 147 in an uncharacteristically fast-paced 91-87 Tar Heel victory. A lot has changed for both teams since then, but will we see the same sort of outcome?
Oddsmakers deserve credit for not overreacting to the last meeting—or Duke’s overtime games, for that matter—and keeping this total within a few points of where it sat last time. Even taking this into account, I am happy to back the under. These teams are playing more and more like the blue bloods that they truly are, and are hardly likely to cough the ball up as often as they did in February’s battle. Barring an unlikely Caleb Love explosion or something of the sort, I just do not think we see lightning strike twice. Take the under.
Pick: Under 151
Over/Under 12.5 Duke turnovers
On paper, the Tar Heel frontcourt looks like a glaring mismatch for the smaller Blue Devils. But in February’s North Carolina victory, the Tar Heels thrived in transition by putting up an eye-popping 28 points off of 15 turnovers. Ball security issues have persisted for the Blue Devils, who coughed it up 14 times in Atlanta earlier this week, but there is no doubt that coach Mike Krzyzewski has his team ready to play a cleaner, more meticulous game. Look for the Blue Devils to take care of the ball in an effort to dictate the game flow in what figures to be a great rematch.
Pick: Under 12.5
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Jonathan Levitan is a Trinity senior and was previously sports editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.