It’s never ideal to be in the midst of a rough patch going into the Tobacco Road rivalry game. But right now, that’s exactly the situation for both Duke and North Carolina.
The Blue Devils followed up their best performance of the season last Saturday against Clemson with an embarrassing loss to Miami the following Monday, and the Tar Heels fared no better a mere 24 hours later. Coming off three straight wins, North Carolina put up a meager 50 points en route to a double-digit loss to Clemson, giving us a Duke-North Carolina matchup that holds heavy implications for both teams’ NCAA tournament chances.
Here are five keys to the Tar Heels and Blue Devils’ 254th meeting Saturday at 6 p.m. in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Bacot conundrum
Coming into the year, senior big man Garrison Brooks was supposed to be the alpha scorer for this Tar Heel squad, but that hasn’t quite been the case. On the other hand, the emergence of sophomore Armando Bacot has been a major positive for North Carolina—up until the matchup with Clemson, he was on a streak of three consecutive games with 17 or more points.
However, the Tigers were able to clamp down on Bacot and hold him to just one point and three rebounds in 19 minutes, disrupting his hot streak. The natural question to follow a performance like that is whether or not this was a one-game fluke. If not, and Bacot continues his struggles Saturday, the tides will certainly start swaying in Duke’s favor.
Mark and Matt
Duke’s two “centers” will both need to perform well Saturday, but in entirely different ways. True center Mark Williams will need to serve as the Blue Devils’ anchor in the paint, holding his own on defense and on the boards against both Bacot and Brooks.
Hurt, meanwhile, will need to once again put up 20-plus points and be the offensive focal piece that the whole squad fires off of. When he's on, his stretch-five playing style opens up the entire floor and gives the rest of the Blue Devil offense room to operate.
Will it rain on Duke?
North Carolina has the second-worst 3-point percentage in the ACC at 30.5%. One would think this means that Duke can exploit the Tar Heels’ weak perimeter shooting. But the only other ACC team to shoot at a lower rate than North Carolina is Miami, who the Blue Devils just allowed to go 7-for-13 from downtown.
Seven threes is not a jaw-dropping number, but losing in that phase of the game will not bode well for Duke Saturday considering North Carolina will most likely win the battle of the boards. If the Tar Heels have the edge on Duke in both rebounding and 3-point shooting and manage to jump out to a lead, the Blue Devils will have a tough time cutting the deficit down.
Which Jalen will show up?
When freshman Jalen Johnson is in his groove, you’d be hard-pressed to find a college defender capable of keeping him from scoring. The problem with Johnson hasn’t been that he lacks the ability to dominate, it’s that there's no rhyme or reason to when he'll have a signature game.
We don’t know if we’ll see the Johnson that scored 24 points against Pittsburgh or the Johnson who turned the ball over six times against Louisville. Johnson’s inconsistencies are even on display within individual games—against Miami, he scored two points in the first half and then went on to score 11 in the second.
Somebody needs to take care of the ball
The turnover margin in this game will be intriguing to follow. Duke and North Carolina are coming off of 13 and 17-turnover performances, respectively, and there’s no doubt that’s a stat line both Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams are well aware of. The Blue Devils do have the upper-hand in terms of pesky on-ball defenders with senior Jordan Goldwire, who could have a massive impact Saturday.
Goldwire ranks second in the ACC with 2.4 steals per game this season, and in a rivalry matchup, a couple extra possessions could be the difference between winning and losing.
Editor's note: This article is one of many in The Chronicle and The Daily Tar Heel's annual rivalry edition. Find the rest here.
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Jake Piazza is a Trinity senior and was sports editor of The Chronicle's 117th volume.