There is plenty of reason not to be optimistic about Duke football.
Daniel Jones is out indefinitely, Mark Gilbert is out for the season and Michael Carter Jr. went down with an injury. Before a win against Baylor Saturday, the Blue Devils' hopes at a strong season seemed over.
But Duke is still going to win nine games—book it.
With some luck, Jones could be back relatively quickly, perhaps after the matchup against No. 13 Virginia Tech Sept. 29, when Duke will most likely be sitting at a cool 4-1, assuming an easy win against North Carolina Central and a loss against the talented Hokies. After that, the Blue Devils only have two probable losses left on its schedule, in road contests against ACC Coastal foes No. 2 Clemson and No. 21 Miami.
The rest of Duke’s schedule is very manageable—Duke is comfortably better than the rest of the teams in the ACC Coastal Division. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Blue Devils have a 60 percent chance or greater of winning each of its games against Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Wake Forest.
It’s really hard to see Duke losing to any of those teams—if they win all of those, it would push it to nine wins. The Blue Devil defense will remain rock solid, and the offense will do enough to make Duke a balanced team. So far, the offensive line has exceeded expectations—as has Quentin Harris.
Even if Jones comes back later than Oct. 13 against Georgia Tech, Harris should be able to fill in just fine—he went above and beyond what I expected against Baylor. Sure, he only completed 40 percent of his passes, but he was explosive as both a passer—making some incredible deep throws—and a runner. The Yellow Jackets’ defense has been weak, too.
With this schedule and Harris playing as well as he has, Duke should set the bar at nine wins—if not higher.
Even though the final score might not have reflected it, the Blue Devils were a few mistakes away from having a chance to beat Miami last season and are actually favorites against Virginia Tech at home, per ESPN’s FPI.
If they could steal a win in either of those games, 10 wins might not be as crazy as it sounds.
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Managing Editor 2018-19, 2019-2020 Features & Investigations Editor
A member of the class of 2020 hailing from San Mateo, Calif., Ben is The Chronicle's Towerview Editor and Investigations Editor. Outside of the Chronicle, he is a public policy major working towards a journalism certificate, has interned at the Tampa Bay Times and NBC News and frequents Pitchforks.