Each day leading up to the first round of the NCAA tournament, The Chronicle will preview one of the four regions in the bracket, touching on the true contenders in the region and potential bracket-busting Cinderellas. First up is the East region, with the Midwest, South and West on tap for later in the week.
The No. 1 seed: Villanova Wildcats
The Wildcats lost veteran leaders Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu from last year's national champions but did not miss a beat this season, becoming the first defending champs to become the No. 1 overall seed since Florida in 2007, when the Gators won a second straight title. Senior swingman Josh Hart is in the running for National Player of the Year and averages 18.9 points per game, and lead guard Jalen Brunson and forward Kris Jenkins—the hero of last season championship game against North Carolina—both average more than 13 points per contest.
The Wildcats are 7-2 against ranked opponents this season and should be happy Butler sits on the other side of the bracket as the No. 4 seed in the South region—the Bulldogs handed them both of those losses. Villanova has already surpassed the 30-win threshold for the fourth time in program history and the third straight season, and head coach Jay Wright appears to have his team primed for another deep run.
The other contenders: Duke leads group hungry to dethrone Wildcats
Although there was some talk of Duke's improbable run to the ACC championship last week being enough to propel the Blue Devils to a No. 1 seed, they were slotted as the No. 2 seed in the East and could be waiting for Villanova in the Elite Eight at Madison Square in two weeks with a trip to the Final Four on the line. But to get there, the Wildcats will also have to navigate a tricky top half of the region.
No. 5 seed Virginia will surely welcome a chance at revenge against Villanova in the Sweet 16 after losing to the Wildcats on the road in January on a buzzer-beating tip-in by Donte DiVincenzo. The Cavaliers led that game by as many as 13 in the second half before going scoreless for nearly five minutes to let Villanova take the lead. Fourth-seeded Florida is another potential obstacle for both Virginia and the WIldcats, though the Gators have not been the same team since center John Egbunu went down for the year with a torn ACL.
The potential Cinderella: UNC-Wilmington
The Seahawks put a first-round scare in Duke last season and are back to finish the job against another ACC opponent this year after a 29-win regular season. The No. 12 seed attacks in transition and has a fast-paced, high-powered offense that could overwhelm Virginia's pack line defense in the first round. UNC-WIlmington is 10th in the nation in scoring with 85.2 points per game, and 6-foot-5 guard C.J. Bryce leads three teammates averaging double figures with 17.6 points per game.
Nobody taller than 6-foot-7 plays meaningful minutes for the Seahawks, but the Cavaliers do not have enough talent in the frontcourt to exploit that lack of size, and neither does Florida without Egbunu, which could open up a path to the second weekend.
The regional narrative: The Duke family
If the Blue Devils make a run to the Elite Eight or Final Four, they may run into some familiar faces along the way. A potential second-round matchup looms against No. 10 seed Marquette, coached by former Duke point guard and longtime assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski. Then, the Blue Devils could play sixth-seeded SMU in the Sweet 16, led by American Athletic Conference Player of the Year Semi Ojeleye. The 6-foot-7 forward spent a year and a half at Duke and played sparingly before transferring in December 2015, and he has thrived in a new environment, averaging 19.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game this year.
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