Each day leading up to the first round of the NCAA tournament, The Chronicle will preview one of the four regions in the bracket, touching on the true contenders in the region and potential bracket-busting Cinderellas. Earlier this week, we broke down the East, South and Midwest, and today we will analyze the West region.
The No. 1 Seed: Gonzaga Bulldogs
A season removed from a Sweet 16 exit, the Bulldogs were just one half of basketball away from an undefeated season. The only blemish on Gonzaga’s resume this season was an upset loss to Brigham Young Feb. 25, spoiling its quest for perfection.
According to basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, the Bulldogs have the second-most efficient defense in the nation, paired with the No. 10 offense—a lethal combination. With dominant guard and Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss and lethal 7-foot-1, 300-pound post weapon Przemek Karnowski, Gonzaga is a threat to score inside and out. A native of Torun, Poland, Karnowski has led the Bulldogs to tie for the eighth-best rebounding margin nationally.
The Bulldogs didn’t lose a true road game all season—though they only played two top-100 opponents in Pomeroy's ratings on the road—and took down No. 2 seed Arizona and No. 4 seed Florida in the regular season at neutral sites.
Certainly, the Bulldogs don’t have the most impressive strength of schedule, with only the 126th-best schedule in the nation. But with its nearly unparalleled defense and ability to score in a variety of different ways, with Williams-Goss, Karnowski and sharpshooters Jordan Mathews and Josh Perkins, Gonzaga is locked and loaded for a deep run.
The other contenders: Arizona, Florida State round out West
Although the West certainly has its share of strong teams, it is regarded as one of the weaker regions in this edition of the NCAA tournament.
Arizona leads the pack of challengers, which includes a feisty West Virginia team and a potentially dangerous but inconsistent Florida State squad. The Bulldogs controlled the contest against Arizona in December, leading by double digits for most of the game, and Florida State went just 3-6 on the road.
With eight losses, the fourth-seeded Mountaineers could present the toughest obstacle in Gonzaga's path. No. 5 in Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, West Virginia forced the most turnovers by a major conference team in the last 15 years, and its frenetic pressure defense could go toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs in the Sweet 16.
The potential Cinderella: Princeton
After dropping six of their first 10 games, the Tigers are one of the hottest teams in the country, rattling off 19 straight wins en route to the Ivy League championship. Princeton has a sneaky efficient defense—in the top 50 in the nation—and is fifth in the nation in turnovers, only committing 10 per game. The Tigers limit opponents’ possessions and shoot nearly 40 percent from 3-point land, the perfect recipe for a Cinderella.
Coming off a disappointing loss against Duke in the ACC tournament final, No. 5 Notre Dame could be vulnerable to an upset. Ivy League teams have done well in the tournament as of late, winning games in four of the last seven tournaments, including Harvard in 2013 and 2014, Yale in 2016 and Cornell and its Sweet 16 run in 2010.
The regional narrative: This could be Gonzaga’s year.
Gonzaga has been a perennial basketball power, but has never made it past the Elite Eight. If it can get past West Virginia, this could be the year the Bulldogs finally break through because of the region’s relative weakness.
The No. 2 and 3 seeds Arizona and Florida State are overrated per Pomeroy's rankings, checking in at Nos. 19 and 20 in efficiency, respectively, and the region lacks an imposing lower seed besides the Mountaineers.
But Gonzaga’s lack of experience against quality opponents could also stand in its way, adding to the intrigue. The Bulldogs beat just three ranked teams all season long, and never had a true road test. Regardless of whether Gonzaga can end its narrative of choking in March or not, the West will certainly provide compelling games.
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Managing Editor 2018-19, 2019-2020 Features & Investigations Editor
A member of the class of 2020 hailing from San Mateo, Calif., Ben is The Chronicle's Towerview Editor and Investigations Editor. Outside of the Chronicle, he is a public policy major working towards a journalism certificate, has interned at the Tampa Bay Times and NBC News and frequents Pitchforks.