After pulling away from a pesky Florida squad to earn their seventh straight win Tuesday, the Blue Devils learned they may be getting an early Christmas present with the return of freshman Harry Giles.
Head coach Mike Krzyzewski said after the game he was hoping to get the No. 1 recruit into Duke’s final two nonconference games Dec. 19 and Dec. 21. Giles’ return would, at long last, give the Blue Devils the full array of talent that made them the consensus top-ranked team entering the season.
But even if Giles can get back on the court against Tennessee State or Elon—a big if considering his slow recovery process—not every player will be reaping the rewards of the holiday gift.
With fellow five-star freshmen Jayson Tatum and Marques Bolden making their much-anticipated debuts last Saturday, Duke suddenly went from running a desperately thin rotation to almost having too many quality players to put on the floor. And Giles, once he shakes off the rust and regains his form, could command the lion’s share of the minutes down low, complicating the issue even further.
Krzyzewski needs to find a way to share 200 minutes among those three freshmen, rookies Frank Jackson and Javin DeLaurier and returners Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen, Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, Chase Jeter and Antonio Vrankovic. That’s 200 minutes to go around for 10 players, although Jeter, Vrankovic and DeLaurier will likely play very sparingly as the roster develops later in the year.
So let’s run through how that might happen.
Early in the season, Duke has been relying exclusively on its upperclassmen, to an almost alarming extent. Allen, Kennard, Jefferson and Jones are all logging at least 31 minutes per game this year, accounting for more than 65 percent of the team’s total.
Since the turn of the century, the Blue Devils have had two or more players on the same team both average more than 35 minutes per game just once—Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler each eclipsed the 35-minute average for the 2009-10 championship team—but Kennard and Jones are both in that category through 10 games.
Kennard has blossomed in his sophomore campaign as the team’s best offensive threat. His minutes will inevitably come down, but he is bound to receive more time now than almost anyone thought he would before the year.
The Franklin, Ohio, native has, for the moment, surpassed Allen as Duke’s primary scorer, but the junior All-American figures to bounce back once he gets his legs under him again. Since both guards are focal points of the Blue Devil offense, let’s give them 30 minutes each—a small decrease from their current workload.
Jones, however, has played in more than 100 games in his career and rarely comes off the court. Although his defense and intangibles remain assets, his offensive effectiveness is waning as the wear and tear sets in—his shooting numbers are far below his marks from the last two seasons and he has scored just five points in the last three games.
Jones’ time seems the most likely to be cut as the Blue Devils lengthen their rotation—20 minutes for one of Krzyzewski’s favorite players.
Jefferson has carried a short-handed frontcourt with a nightly double-double and is the team’s most consistent player, particularly on defense. He’s currently averaging 31.0 minutes per game, but it’s hard to see Krzyzewski taking his veteran leader and tenacious rebounder off the court for too long in crunch time—keep it at 30 minutes for Jefferson.
Then of course there’s Tatum, one of the most talented scorers in the country who started to look more like himself in the second half against the Gators. His length and quickness make him a nightmare matchup for opponents, and he has already demonstrated his rebounding prowess in just two games—he has to play at least 30 minutes if he’s healthy.
So already, that’s 140 minutes for a starting five of Kennard, Allen, Jones, Jefferson and Tatum, which was the lineup the Blue Devils went with for most of the second half Tuesday.
Jackson, who has been electric at times and nonexistent at others, will likely see his minutes cut down from 28.9 per game currently. Let’s give him 20 minutes and say that he splits time evenly at with Jones at one of the guard spots.
Now we’re at 160 minutes without even mentioning two five-star recruits in Bolden and Giles.
Bolden has looked rusty in brief action through his first two games, and Krzyzewski said he needs time to build his endurance back up to the point where he can play significant minutes.
Nobody really knows what Duke is going to get from Giles, either, considering he sat out almost his entire senior year of high school and has just recently started going through full-contact practices. Based on pure talent, both Bolden and Giles should merit starter minutes, but factoring in the uncertainty surrounding both of them, 20 minutes each sounds like a reasonable mark.
And that gets us to 200 minutes, using seven players. It includes only 20 minutes for Blue Devils’ senior captain and ultimate “glue guy”, and the same 20 minutes for two likely NBA lottery picks—with no player logging more than 30.
It also leaves zero minutes for Jeter, DeLaurier or Vrankovic at the end of the bench, but it’s difficult to see time for them on this crowded roster later in the season. Does Krzyzewski take five or 10 minutes away from the Kennard/Allen duo and go with a big lineup? That’s possible, although if Bolden and Giles are playing well, then they should be the ones getting those extra minutes.
After a year and a half of having to constantly scrape together a bench and lean heavily on its starters to play most, if not all, of the game, Duke finally looks like it has some real depth.
That provides a whole slew of new issues—but it’s a problem Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils will be happy to deal with.
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