This column is part of our dueling columnists series in our women's basketball season preview. The counterpoint can be found here.
The Blue Devils were tied for 306th in the country last year with 18.5 turnovers per game and lost two of their top scorers in the offseason with Azurá Stevens transferring to Connecticut and Angela Salvadores electing to play professionally overseas.
Duke missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1994 with those two coveted players, so how could anyone argue that the Blue Devils will get back to being a top-15 team and contender in the ACC? I’ll show you.
A lot has to go right for Duke to get back to the place it was in during head coach Joanne P. McCallie’s first several years as a head coach. But adding an All-American point guard in Maryland transfer Lexie Brown and versatile wing in five-star recruit Leaonna Odom gives the Blue Devils the consistent guard play they have been missing for so long.
Averaging more than 17 turnovers per game cripples an offense, as has been the case for Duke each of the last three years. With dominant post players like Stevens and Elizabeth Williams setting up shop down low, the Blue Devil offense too often would involve guards trying to feed the post, cutting off ball movement and hurting Duke’s floor spacing.
It is no coincidence that in all three seasons, with injuries decimating the Blue Devils, they struggled to keep pace with the top teams in the ACC after winning three conference titles in four years between 2010 and 2013.
With the dynamic backcourt trio of Brown, redshirt junior All-ACC guard Rebecca Greenwell and sophomore Kyra Lambert leading this year’s team, Duke should finally be able to play faster and catch up to the rest of the league. Perimeter shooting and playing at a quicker pace have become the name of the game in basketball—shown by last year’s rule changes to institute four quarters instead of two halves and reduce dead-ball stoppages—and the Blue Devils should have one of their best shooting teams in recent memory.
After ranking 7th in the nation in 3-point percentage in 2012-13 and leading in 2013-14 with eye-popping clips better than 40 percent from long range, Duke shot less than 35 percent each of the past two seasons. 2015-16’s 34.3 percent mark was certainly respectable, ranking 45th in the nation, but Greenwell was largely responsible for that number with her individual 41.7 percent rate and 73 3-pointers made on the season.
This year, the Owensboro, Ky., native should get some help beyond the arc from her new partner in crime.
Brown is a dangerous 3-point shooter in her own right after making 69 3-pointers as a sophomore at Maryland in 2014-15 before sitting out last season. Defenses will have a tough time keeping both Brown and Greenwell covered from long range without opening up driving lanes for the duo and the speedy Lambert.
That’s not even taking into account any unexpected contributions from the Blue Devil sophomores.
Many forget that Lambert, Faith Suggs, Crystal Primm and Haley Gorecki comprised the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2015. Lambert was the only one who made a consistent impact last season, but Gorecki was touted as a deadly shooter entering college and Suggs showed the ability to make some outside shots in her limited minutes last year.
That quartet will likely determine Duke’s success this season against top competition, but if it can stay healthy—Gorecki missed most of last season due to injury and is out until December—the group’s talent should come through in a more free-flowing offense.
Primm is not a threat to make perimeter shots, but at 5-foot-11 is a capable slasher and defender. The Blue Devils now have another player with a similar skill set in their latest five-star freshman, Odom, which adds versatility to this year’s squad. Odom is three inches taller than Primm and also has the tools to defend a number of positions and attack bigger players off the dribble.
With Greenwell and Brown as options from long range, opposing defenses will not be able to help on drives to the bucket and clog the paint, another reason the Blue Devils should be able to avoid the sloppiness that has characterized many of their recent losses.
The final reason Duke will get back to being a top-15 team this year? Senior forward Kendall Cooper returns to the Blue Devils after not being enrolled last semester, and should bring toughness and physicality to Duke’s frontcourt. The Carson, Calif., native blocked 13 shots in 11 games last season, and should complement fellow senior Oderah Chidom, who averaged 14.0 points and 7.6 rebounds in her last eight games in 2015-16.
Although the Blue Devils don’t have the dominant forwards they have had in the past, Chidom and Cooper should be able to protect the paint, rebound and finish when Duke’s guards force opposing forwards to help against dribble penetration.
Combine that formula with the Blue Devils’ perimeter shooting, and Duke should easily fare better than sixth in the ACC—where it was predicted to finish in this year’s conference preseason poll.
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