This column is part of our dueling columnists series in our women's basketball season preview. The point can be found here.
The Blue Devils missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1994 and lost two of their top offensive threats in the offseason.
And although Duke added All-American guard Lexie Brown, the Blue Devils still have to replace too many pieces to contend in the ACC and get back into the top 15 nationally. Duke has reasons for hope entering the year, but the departures of Azurá Stevens and Angela Salvadores and another grueling schedule will keep Duke from faring much better than its predicted sixth-place finish in the conference.
Optimists will point to the fact that the Blue Devils have capable ball handlers in Brown, junior Rebecca Greenwell and sophomore point guard Kyra Lambert to lead a dynamic offense. But as we have seen in recent years, simply having talented guards doesn’t always translate to efficient offense. Each of the past few years, the Blue Devils had five-star talents in their backcourts yet were among the nation’s worst teams in turnovers.
Regardless of the team’s overall skill level, it will take time for Duke’s other players to develop chemistry with Brown and freshman Leaonna Odom on the court against new opponents.
But that’s not even the biggest reason the Blue Devils will struggle to push the conference’s top teams this year—their lack of post depth is.
Following Stevens’ transfer to Connecticut, Duke is in a situation it has rarely faced since 1999. During that time period, more than half of the 20 Blue Devils who have made it to the WNBA have been forwards or post players. But head coach Joanne P. McCallie arguably has the least frontcourt depth that she has had to work with since she arrived in Durham in 2007.
Senior Oderah Chidom is the only post player who logged significant time last season, as forward Kendall Cooper was academically ineligible to play during the spring semester and Lyneé Belton has suffered season-ending injuries the past two seasons.
At 6-foot-2, Odom is more of a threat on the perimeter than a presence down low, like fellow wing Faith Suggs, and forward Erin Mathias has struggled to find her footing in her first two seasons.
That means the Blue Devils will likely be relying on Chidom—who played well down the stretch last season but has a limited back-to-the-basket game—and Cooper, who is a strong defensive presence when she is on the court but has traditionally struggled to stay out of foul trouble.
Duke could try to implement smaller lineups with only one true post player, but the Blue Devils have traditionally not used that formula and could struggle to keep pace with more dynamic teams given their lack of proven perimeter shooting outside of Greenwell and Brown.
Even if everything goes right for Duke and Chidom and Cooper hold their own up front while Greenwell and Brown become one of the best backcourts in the country, the Blue Devils would need to stay healthy to have a legitimate chance against the ACC’s and nation’s top teams like Notre Dame and Louisville.
Duke has not been able to avoid major injuries in the past several years, and with physical nonconference contests against SEC foes on tap before the Blue Devils even get into the heart of their schedule, McCallie’s team could see its depth tested early and often.
That leads into the last major reason Duke won’t get back to national prominence this year—its road is too difficult. The Blue Devils will face national title contenders in Notre Dame, South Carolina and Louisville throughout the year, not to mention contests against Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
In the ACC, Duke will have to prove itself against the likes of Syracuse—fresh off a historic national title game appearance—Florida State and Miami. All three teams are in the top 20 of the preseason rankings along with Kentucky, Notre Dame, South Carolina and Louisville—and the Blue Devils struggled mightily against that group last season, going 0-7 against those teams.
Duke lost all eight of its games against ranked opponents in 2015-16 despite coming close in many of them, and this year’s Blue Devils simply has too many question marks to win the big games needed to contend for a league title.
McCallie’s team will likely show improvement this season, but its limited post depth, injury history and tough competition make it hard to see a huge jump into the top 15.
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Managing Editor 2018-19, 2019-2020 Features & Investigations Editor
A member of the class of 2020 hailing from San Mateo, Calif., Ben is The Chronicle's Towerview Editor and Investigations Editor. Outside of the Chronicle, he is a public policy major working towards a journalism certificate, has interned at the Tampa Bay Times and NBC News and frequents Pitchforks.