Countdown to Craziness was Saturday night and, as usual, it was electric.
Cameron Indoor Stadium was filled to the brim with energized fans eager to see the top-ranked Blue Devils on the floor for the first time.
Celebrations were abundant and emphatic starting with the player introductions. During the scrimmage, offense flowed freely, as freshmen Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson made the rest of the squad look as if they were playing in slow motion.
The brimming talent and promise of the roster was clear even to the casual observer, and it was easy to fantasize about what this team could become. A friend even texted me afterward saying we should book tickets to Phoenix for the Final Four.
But that reaction is exactly what fans should guard against following Saturday’s showcase. It was just that—a showcase.
For all of the hype surrounding Countdown and how much anticipation it builds, the event is completely meaningless from a basketball perspective. Countdown still provides legitimate value to the program through marketing and branding exposure and an alluring recruiting pitch for top high school talent, but drawing conclusions this early in the basketball season is a dangerous practice.
The first live glimpse of any team is bound to be overanalyzed regardless of the opponent—in the same way that early MLB spring training games and NFL preseason contests are dissected for “meaningful” takeaways. Yet to take away any meaningful lessons from a 20-minute intrasquad scrimmage—something that frequently happens in practice—is overly sensationalistic and plain silly.
Yes, Tatum looked outstanding and polished and could seemingly score from anywhere he wanted to. But he was also being guarded by Jack White, who figures to see little—if any—crucial playing time this season and pales in comparison to the types of defenders and schemes Tatum will draw on a regular basis when real games begin.
Jackson stood out by virtue of his raw athleticism, quickness and ability to break down the defense off the dribble. Those skills should carry over to the regular season, at least in some capacity, but the 6-foot-3 guard also has a lot of learning to do in terms of running the offense and adjusting to the flow of the game. How Jackson fares against Kansas’ veteran backcourt duo of Frank Mason III and Devonte Graham Nov. 15 will tell us infinitely more about what the Blue Devils can expect from him this year.
Even that marquee matchup in the Champions Classic, though, can only tell us so much about where this Duke team is headed. It will be a litmus test, for sure, against a top-notch team, but there’s no need for the metaphorical walls to cave in even if the Jayhawks romp to a double-digit win.
When expectations are at a championship-or-bust level—which they are certainly approaching for this team, fairly or not—there is a tendency for pundits to scrutinize every slip-up or false step in search of the one weakness that can fell such a talented team.
In the 2014-15 season, many thought the sky was falling after the Blue Devils stumbled to a 2-2 start in ACC play and got blown out by Miami at home. Fans were lamenting Tyus Jones’ defensive struggles in January 2015 after Miami’s Angel Rodriguez torched the freshman. But in April, Jones went on to be the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player.
In that case, talent won out, as it almost always does in a long season. And this Duke team has as much talent as any team in the country—perhaps more.
That’s an important thing to keep in mind when the inevitable ebbs and flows of a tough ACC slate take hold. Despite their overwhelming ability, the Blue Devils will not, in all likelihood, meet every test along the way, and there will probably be times Duke looks downright lost.
It’s very possible that Harry Giles—the country’s top recruit who is supposed to put this team over the top—won’t be on the court in Cameron against Michigan State Nov. 29, or even by New Year’s Eve for the team’s ACC opener at Virginia Tech. It’s possible that when he does return to the floor, he won’t immediately emerge as the dominating presence he was hyped up to be.
If and when things like that happen, resist the urge to panic.
Remember the moment in January 2015 when many thought Duke was a pretender rather than a national title contender—the Blue Devils responded by hanging a banner in the rafters of Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.