Back in the Final Four for the first time since 2010, the Blue Devils will look to advance to the national championship when they take on Michigan State Saturday at 6:09 p.m. at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, In. The game will be the second matchup between the teams this season, with Duke having defeated the Spartans 81-71 back in November. Although many believed the Blue Devils had the talent to advance deep in the NCAA tournament this season, few believed this seventh-seeded Michigan State squad would make it this far after losing three key seniors from their squad a year ago. With a title game spot hanging in the balance, we take a look at a player from each team that could be the decisive factor:
Duke: center Jahlil Okafor
Coming into the NCAA tournament as a sure-fire top-three selection in the 2015 NBA Draft, the freshman is undoubtedly the most talented player on the Blue Devils' roster. But after averaging 23.5 points and dominating the paint in the first weekend of play, Okafor struggled in Duke’s wins against Utah and Gonzaga. Both teams’ size caused major issues for the Chicago native by preventing Okafor from establishing post-position—holding him to just 15 points combined on 7-of-16 shooting from the floor.
Okafor will face another tough challenge this Saturday when he is matched up with Michigan State’s Branden Dawson, Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello. Despite having his way with the trio in the team’s November matchup, expect Dawson and company to be up for the challenge this time around. Okafor will need to use his power and footwork in the low block—along with his height advantage—to put pressure on the Spartans' defense Saturday. A quick start for the All-American could be just what is needed to force Michigan State to leave open shooters in order to double-team the center.
Although his offense prowess has been well noted all season, Okafor’s play on the defensive side of the ball and shooting from the foul line will also be crucial if he hopes to lead the Blue Devils to their first title since 2010. On defense, the freshman will have to be sure to stay out of trouble while containing Dawson on the glass and in the paint. With Michigan State having numerous big men to hack the freshman if he gets position in the paint, Duke will also hope that its star has one of his better days from the line—he has shot just 50 percent from the charity stripe during the tournament.
One of the biggest reasons for the Blue Devils success this season has been the impact the presence of Okafor can have in all aspects of the game. If the freshman can put a solid effort in once again on Sunday, expect Duke to find itself just one win from a fifth national title.
Michigan State: guard Bryn Forbes
The Cleveland State transfer has made tremendous strides this season after finding himself in head coach Tom Izzo’s doghouse earlier this season. Despite coming off the bench for much of the latter part of the season, Forbes has been the missing two-guard the Spartans have so desperately needed after losing Gary Harris to the NBA a year ago. Forbes' ability to stretch the floor with his perimeter shooting makes him a valuable offensive weapon for the Spartans. On the year, the junior has connected on 43.5 percent of his attempts from deep. The Lansing, Mich., native is coming off one of his best games of the season in the Elite Eight against Louisville in which he poured in 14 points on 4-of-6 shooting from beyond the arc.
Duke will have to be especially cognizant of where Forbes is in transition. The guard has knocked down 59 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc in transition this season and being slow to locate Forbes could be disastrous for the Blue Devils. In order to contain the guard, look for Duke to consider keeping a defender—whether it is Matt Jones, Tyus Jones or Grayson Allen—locked in on the deadly shooter.
In a game in which so much attention is being paid to the likes of senior Travis Trice, junior Denzel Valentine and Dawson for the Spartans, a big performance from an unlikely source such as Forbes could be the contribution needed to send the Cinderella Spartans back to the title game.
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