After a long season of ups-and-downs, just 40 minutes of basketball remain to crown a champion. Top-seeded Duke will look to capture its fifth national title in program history as it takes on top-seeded Wisconsin—which took down previously undefeated Kentucky in the Final Four Saturday night—Monday at 9:18 p.m. at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Blue Devils already knocked off the Badgers once this season—defeating a then-No. 2 Wisconsin squad on the road Dec. 3—but both teams look to be playing their best basketball of the season heading into Monday’s heavyweight bout. Here are three keys to the game to see who finally gets to cut down the nets in Indianapolis:
Win the free throw battle
For all the talk about the Wildcats’ suffocating defense and how they stifle opposing offenses, the Badgers discovered the best way to score against Willie Cauley-Stein and company—at the free throw line, where the defense can’t guard you. Wisconsin enjoyed a nine-point edge from the charity stripe in its 71-64 victory against Kentucky, connecting on 18-of-22 attempts from the line. The Badgers shoot 77 percent from the free throw line as a team, and all five starters sit at better than 70 percent.
Duke took a similar route to the championship game, blowing out Michigan State 81-61 thanks to a 27-of-37 performance at the line. The Blue Devils made one more free throw than they did field goals against the Spartans, and even center Jahlil Okafor—much-maligned for his free throw woes—turned in a respectable 4-of-7 performance on freebies. Whichever team can limit the oppositions’ chances at the charity stripe and instead make them earn their points by hitting contested field goals will have a big leg up in the title game.
Keep up the strong defense
Duke’s strength during the regular season was its prolific offense, but it has been the team’s staunch defensive efforts that have carried it through the tournament thus far. The Blue Devils have shot up to No. 12 in basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings—after entering the big dance ranked No. 57—and have held their tournament foes to just 55.0 points per game.
In Wisconsin—the top-ranked offense in Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency rankings—Duke faces arguably the most complete offense it has seen all year. Led by AP Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky and tournament standout Sam Dekker, the Badgers' motion offense thrives in head coach Bo Ryan’s system and led the nation in two-point field goal percentage during the regular season. Wisconsin didn’t crumble under the Final Four pressure and was able to execute against Kentucky’s defense, so the Blue Devils will definitely have their work cut out for them on the defensive end.
Keep Winslow rolling
Perhaps the biggest change for Duke between the early-season matchup and now has been the development of Justise Winlsow. The 6-foot-6 forward scored just five points on 2-of-6 shooting in the teams’ first matchup, as he was still trying to find his comfort zone at the beginning of his freshman campaign. Winslow has come on strong in the second half of the season, establishing himself as a dominant two-way player and a potential top-5 pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
Although his classmates have received all the hardware—Tyus Jones was named the South Region’s Most Outstanding Player and Okafor nabbed ACC Player of the Year and AP First Team All-American honors—Winslow is the biggest reason the Blue Devils have the chance to compete for a championship Monday night. The Houston native led the team with 19 points—including an efficient 9-of-11 performance from the line—and nine rebounds against Michigan State, and has recorded two double-doubles in the tournament.
On the defensive end, Winslow will likely be tasked with slowing down the 6-foot-9 Dekker, who is averaging more than 20 points per game in the tournament and has emerged as the heart and soul of the Wisconsin bunch. Kaminsky’s versatility poses a threat for Duke, but it was Dekker who hit the big shots in the Badgers’ last two victories against Arizona and Kentucky—meaning Winslow’s ability to win or lose that battle late could be the difference between a fifth banner in Cameron or a long trip back to Durham.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.