After emerging from the South Region, the top-seeded Blue Devils have made it to where every team sets out to be at the start of the season: the Final Four. Duke will look to knock off seventh-seeded Michigan State for the second time this season Saturday at 6:09 p.m. at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The two squads met Nov. 18 as part of the Champions Classic, with the Blue Devils prevailing 81-71. Much has changed since then, but here are three keys to the game with a national championship berth on the line:
Feed Okafor in the post
For most of the season, the chatter surrounding Duke centered on its freshman stud down low and his incredibly polished offensive game. Jahlil Okafor dominated both ACC and nonconference opponents in a stellar regular season that included five 20-point, 10-rebound performances and one historic 25-20 night.
But it wasn’t Okafor that the Blue Devils rode as they cemented their place in the Final Four. The ACC Player of the Year and AP first team All-American scored in single digits in both games in Houston—after doing so just once all year—and was conspicuously quiet as Justise Winslow and the Duke guards controlled most of the offense. Okafor notched 17 points on a smooth 8-of-10 shooting during the November matchup against Michigan State, and will once again enjoy a distinct size advantage against his primary defender in the post—6-foot-9, 245-pound forward Matt Costello. 6-foot-9, 240-pound forward Gavin Schilling and 6-foot-6, 225-pound forward Branden Dawson also play down low for the Spartans and will likely help out on the big man.
The Blue Devils may have clinched their ticket to the Final Four without a strong performance from their top player, but they will likely be hard-pressed to beat the Spartans if the Chicago native puts together a third straight subpar effort on the offensive end.
Slow down Travis Trice
When your own coach says that the other team has the best player in the tournament, it’s usually time to be worried. But that’s how Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski described Trice, a senior guard who has really come into his own in his final season at Michigan State. The Huber Heights, Ohio, native doubled his production in points, rebounds, and assists from his junior season and has averaged 19.8 points per game—four points higher than his season average—during the Spartans’ run to the Final Four.
Trice has been deadly from beyond the arc in the tournament, where he has hit at least two triples in each game and connected on more than 40 percent of his treys overall. Standing at just six feet, Trice has a slight build similar to Gonzaga guard Kevin Pangos—who Quinn Cook and the Blue Devils held to just four points on 2-of-8 shooting in the Elite Eight. Trice is the engine that makes the Michigan State offense go, but if Duke—with Cook likely drawing the defensive assignment—can force him into his first bad game of the tournament, then it will be one step closer to a national title.
Make the necessary adjustments
There will be all sorts of talent on the floor Saturday night, but the best matchup may be on the bench with two legendary coaches—Krzyzewski and Spartan head coach Tom Izzo—manning the sidelines. The duo has combined for 19 Final Fours and five national championships, but only one will get a chance to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
Coaching against another future Hall of Fame coach earlier this season in Louisville’s Rick Pitino, Krzyzewski made perhaps his best call of the year—having the Blue Devils switch to a zone defense, which propelled them to a win against the then-No. 6 Cardinals and allowed them to mix up their defensive schemes the rest of the season.
How do Izzo and the Spartans deal with the surging Winslow without exposing their defense to Okafor or the talented Blue Devil guards? What does Krzyzewski do to handle Trice and keep his squad playing the stingy defense it has exhibited thus far in the tournament? It is tactical decisions like these that often provide the razor-thin margin of victory in a Final Four game, and the chess match between the two brilliant minds of Krzyzewski and Izzo will be one to watch closely.
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