Duke has a lot to play for when the Sun Bowl kicks off Saturday at 2 p.m. at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas, but its opponent is also looking for redemption and back-to-back 10-win seasons.
No. 15 Arizona State had a chance to clinch its second consecutive appearance in the Pac-12 title game entering the final three weeks of the season, but fell 35-27 at Oregon State Nov. 15 and 42-35 to its rival, then-No.11 Arizona, Nov. 28 to give the Wildcats the division crown.
But like the Blue Devils, the Sun Devils have a chance to get past late-season disappointment by extending Duke's bowl-win drought to 54 years and bolstering third-year head coach Todd Graham's already-impressive resume.
"We’re happy to get this opportunity," Graham said after the matchup was announced Dec. 7. "We’re going for our back-to-back ten win season and this year’s seniors have been so important, we want to win for them. We got a lot to play for.”
Although the redshirt senior duo of quarterback Taylor Kelly and safety Damarious Randall leads Graham's squad, Duke will also have to focus on a trio of juniors to slow down an attack that averages 37.0 points per game, a clip tied for 18th in the nation.
Running back D.J. Foster and wide receiver Jaelen Strong—who announced Monday he will forgo his senior season to enter the NFL Draft—both had 1,000-yard regular seasons and quarterback Mike Bercovici has been effective splitting time with Kelly. The quarterback duo has combined for 32 touchdowns, more than 3,300 yards and only nine interceptions on 433 pass attempts.
The versatility of Kelly and Foster will provide an additional challenge in the Sun Devil spread attack. Kelly has the ability to extend plays with his legs like Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel did last year in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and Foster has 646 receiving yards to go along with his 1,002 yards on the ground.
“They’re a big-time spread offense—they’ve got great talent on the edge," Duke safety Corbin McCarthy said before practice Tuesday. "A lot of it is [going to be] honing in on our skill sets [and] making sure we can make tackles in the open field, making sure we can come up and support in the run game. We’ve thrown in some new plays to scheme around what they do.”
Duke's defense ranks 20th in the nation in points allowed per contest at 20.6, but will be facing its toughest test of the season. Like the Blue Devil offense, Arizona State takes great care of the ball, and the team's advantage in the turnover department usually makes up for the fact that its defense yields more than 400 yards per contest.
The Sun Devils have only committed 13 turnovers all season—the exact same number as the Duke offense—and the defense has 25 takeaways led by Russell, who has three interceptions, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery to go along with a team-high 101 tackles this season.
Arizona State's plus-12 turnover margin ranks sixth in the nation, but as is the case with the Blue Devils, the Sun Devils are most vulnerable when their offense is unable to protect the football.
Arizona State coughed the ball up twice in both of its late-season losses to Arizona and Oregon State and four times in its worst performance of the season, suffering through a 62-27 home rout Sept. 25 against UCLA. Duke can take lessons from the successes of the Beavers, Wildcats and Bruins and attempt to make the Sun Devils uncomfortable with blitzes and disguised coverages.
If the Blue Devils are able to force Arizona State into some mistakes, their offense should be able to make the Sun Devils pay. Arizona State's defense often pays for its aggressiveness and man-to-man coverages, as its 39 sacks, 25 takeaways and five defensive touchdowns have to be weighed against the 5.7 yards per play and 27.7 points per game the unit surrenders.
Graham's defense has a knack for changing the momentum of games in either direction, so Duke is focusing on limiting the impact of Russell and senior defensive lineman Marcus Hardison—who had a team-high 10 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in the regular season—before it tries too hard to make the big play itself.
“[Arizona State's defense] is a very experienced group—they have a lot of upperclassmen," Blue Devil senior running back Josh Snead said before Monday's practice. "Probably two-thirds of the game, they’re going to blitz, so we’ve got to be prepared in the pass protection game and the run game. [But] by just going out and executing and doing what we do from an offensive standpoint, we should be very good.”
When the teams take the field Saturday, Duke will have had almost three weeks to rest and prepare for Arizona State's arsenal of blitzes and quick passes to the perimeter.
But the Blue Devils know they need to turn work in practice into execution on game day facing a team that looked to be in the hunt for the inaugural College Football Playoff after nine games if they want to achieve a new postseason result.
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