Not all wins are created equally. At least not if you are located on 15-501.
North Carolina enters Thursday’s primetime matchup looking to claim its fourth win in five games and become bowl eligible in the process. But more importantly for the Tar Heels, they will have also have a chance to break a two-year losing streak to the Blue Devils.
“I’ve heard a lot about [the losing streak],” North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora said. “We know it’s a big game. I don’t really say much about it, but the kids know what’s at stake. They know what we have to do. I think they’re excited and I think they’ll be full of energy on Thursday.”
After winning its first two games of the season, North Carolina—similar to its 2013 season—lost its next four games and was seemingly on its way to another disappointing season despite its stellar recruiting class. But the Tar Heels have once again managed to salvage their season, as they have won three of their last four and are now one win away from bowl eligibility.
But that was not before going through the aforementioned rough patch. North Carolina’s losses—outside of its 50-43 defeat at the hands of Notre Dame—have all been blowouts. The Tar Heels’ five losses have come with an average 19-point score differential.
On the other hand, North Carolina has maintained a slim winning margin in its five victories, claiming those games by an average margin of 8.4—although that number is boosted from 3.8 thanks to the Tar Heels’ opening-day 27-point win against Liberty.
With this in mind, along with the fact that the past two games have been decided by a combined five points, Thursday’s night game is shaping up to be a close, high-scoring affair. And that’s what North Carolina and its defense should be scared of.
The Tar Heel defense has struggled to put up a fight against the majority of its opponents this season. North Carolina ranks last in the ACC in scoring defense at 41.2 points allowed per contest, poor enough for fourth-worst in the entire NCAA. It also brings up the rear in total defense, allowing 511.6 yards per game, which also ranks fourth worst in the nation.
Despite its woes on the defensive side of the field, the Tar Heels have been humming on offense all season. North Carolina ranks second in the conference with 430.6 yards per game. But against a stout Duke defense, the Tar Heels will need to do something no team outside of Pittsburgh has been able to accomplish this season against the Blue Devils—rack up points, not just yards.
Boasting an offense that has scored 22 touchdowns on the ground and 24 through the air thus far—North Carolina ranks second in the conference with 35.3 points per game—the Tar Heels will be as well prepared as any to pile on the points Thursday.
“Coach Fedora is one of the brightest offensive minds in the game,” Duke head coach David Cutcliffe said. “They present a lot of problems. There’s no question they’re difficult to get ready for in just a few days.”
This offensive efficiency is made possible thanks in large part to junior quarterback Marquise Williams.
After sharing time early on in the season with Mitch Trubisky, Williams has solely taken over the position and the Tar Heel offense has thrived with the new consistency under center. He has tossed 18 touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions and averages 249.7 yards per game.
Williams’ arm is only half of what makes the Charlotte native so dangerous, as he also leads the team in rushing. Through 10 games, Williams has averaged 62.8 yards and one score per game on the ground. In last year’s thriller in Chapel Hill, Williams rushed for 108 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries.
“He’s a great athlete, a great player,” Duke defensive end Dezmond Johnson said. “For us as a defense, it’s going to be challenging, because a player like him, you don’t want to get off and have that opportunity to create big plays for his team.”
But the Tar Heels will need more than just Williams on the ground against Duke.
Senior running back Romar Morris—who was suspended for the Pittsburgh game due to a DUI—will return to take on the Blue Devils Thursday. This will come right on cue for North Carolina, as running backs Elijah Hood and Kris Francis will not play in Thursday’s contest. Hood has been battling injuries all season, and Francis tore his ACL and MCL against the Panthers last Saturday.
“Everybody at the beginning of the year said, ‘Oh, you’ve got so many running backs,’” Fedora said. “But [Francis] just stuck his foot in the ground and it was a bad deal.”
With Morris back in the lineup and Williams at the helm of a potent offense, the Tar Heels will give the Blue Devils a run for their money and the coveted Victory Bell Thursday night.
“We’re just ready to get the Bell back. It’s our last two games, it is the most important games and we want to be known as the team to remember in November and Duke’s in the way to stop us,” Williams said. “These guys are excited to go to whatever-the-stadium-name-is Thursday night.”
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