The Blue Devils put together a 10-win dream season in 2013 and almost pulled out a victory against Texas A&M in one of the year's most exciting bowl games. A strong recruiting class joins a bevy of returning starters, and Duke is receiving more national attention heading into the 2014 season than at any time in the past two decades.
But the Blue Devils have underlying problems that will prevent them from making another run to a Coastal Division title.
It starts with the schedule.
Duke begins the year with four games against some of the worst competition college football has to offer. Elon, the Blue Devils' season opener, isn't in the FBS. Tulane and Kansas are perennial cellar dwellers, finishing last season ranked 68th and 105th, respectively. Troy is marginally better but managed just six wins last year in a weak Sun Belt conference. In all likelihood, Duke will roll to four easy wins to start the season and won't face a real challenge until the last weekend of September when it travels to Miami Gardens, Fla., to take on the Hurricanes.
There is something to be said for building up confidence early in a season with wins, no matter what team they come against. But an early 4-0 record might also build complacency in the Blue Devils, a recipe for disaster playing against a hungry Miami team looking to avenge last year's loss in Durham. And if Miami taliback Duke Johnson is healthy—he missed the end of the 2014 season, including the Duke game, with a broken ankle—the Hurricanes might roll over an untested Blue Devil squad.
It doesn't get much easier after the trip to Miami, either. Three of Duke's next four games are on the road. First the Blue Devils take on Georgia Tech in Atlanta, where Duke has not won since 1994. After a home game against Virginia, the Blue Devils hit the road again. Duke heads to Pittsburgh and Syracuse for matchups against two of the newest members of the ACC in cities that the Blue Devils have not played in since 1975 and 1938, respectively. Unfamiliar and unfriendly confines on the road rarely bode well for any visiting team, especially a Duke squad that can no longer fly under the radar as an underdog.
If the Blue Devils get off to a rocky start on a difficult road trip filled with important conference games, a run for the Coastal Division title will be in serious jeopardy in November when Virginia Tech and North Carolina come to Durham looking to swipe the division crown for themselves.
Scheduling issues are not the only roadblock toward a repeat Coastal title.
At the end of last season, Duke looked like it would be returning a formidable squad for 2014. But a lot can change in eight months.
It started before the 2013 season ended, with the announcement of sophomore running back Jela Duncan's suspension for the Chick-fil-A Bowl and the entire 2014 season. In the wake of Juwan Thompson's departure, Duncan would have been a key component of a trio of talented Duke tailbacks. Now the stable of four interchangeable running backs that opened up the ground game for the Blue Devils in 2013 has been reduced to the duo of Josh Snead and Shaq Powell, who will be forced to pick up Duncan's carries in short-yardage situations.
More bad news came in April, when senior quarterback Brandon Connette announced his decision to transfer to Fresno State for his final year of eligibility. A native of Corona, Calif., Connette wanted to be closer to his mother, who is battling cancer. Duke relied heavily on the dual-threat quarterback in 2013, and his loss leaves the backup quarterback role in the hands of either redshirt sophomore Thomas Sirk or redshirt freshman Parker Boehme, neither of whom have taken a snap in a college football game.
Those losses were tough, but manageable.
But then the injury bug struck this summer and stole away crucial components of the offense and defense.
First to go was senior linebacker Kelby Brown, down for the year with an ACL injury. Brown was an All-ACC selection in 2013 and an integral part of Duke's run defense. No one player will be able to match the 114 tackles Brown amassed in 2013, nor the leadership that he brought to a Blue Devil defense that found its confidence last season after years of playing pin cushion to ACC offenses.
Then came the season-ending injury to redshirt senior tight end Braxton Deaver, also sidelined by an ACL tear. Deaver represented Duke's second-best receiving option behind Jamison Crowder, and his loss will be dear to the Blue Devil offense.
Even an optimistic football fan does not count on an injury-free regular season, and any more significant losses could cripple Duke's season even further. As is, the Blue Devils head into 2014 with some serious holes to fill after transfers, suspensions, injuries and graduation are taken into account. Couple that with a schedule full of tough tests in early conference games, and Duke faces an incredibly difficult road toward repeating as Coastal Division champs.
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