Recess predicts the Oscars

The most exciting award show of the year is this Sunday, February 27. In this post, five Recess staff members weigh in with their predictions on how the night will go down. Feel free to share your opinion, make fun of our pretension or ridicule our choices in the comments.

To view the nominees, go to http://oscar.go.com/nominees.

Best Picture

The Recess staff was surprisingly divided on this one. Critics, initially split between the ensemble-cast, Oscar-bait “American Hustle” and the dark historical epic “12 Years a Slave,” have settled on “12 Years” as the favorite. However, “Gravity,” with its fantastic technological achievements, and “Hustle” still remain extremely strong contenders.

Who Will Win

Adam Schutzman: “12 Years a Slave.” “12 Years a Slave” burst onto the scene as an immediate frontrunner and hasn’t slowed down a bit. The heavily emotional tale of Solomon Northup’s trek from free man to slavery is one of the most brutally honest portrayals of slavery in a long time. Bolstered by career defining turns from Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender and newcomer Lupita Nyong'o, “12 Years a Slave” is this year’s film to beat.

Drew Haskins: “12 Years a Slave.” In a year full of strong contenders for Best Picture, Steve McQueen’s magnum opus will likely win due to its powerful acting and unflinchingly honest portrayal of one of the darkest periods in American history.

Who Should Win:

Adam: “Her.” This year’s most creative and heartfelt film, “Her” is an unparalleled study in futuristic love. Its ability to innovatively focus on the themes of love, loneliness and finding one’s place in the world make it the movie of the year.

Drew: “Her.” Don’t overlook “Her”! It’s a funny and bittersweet romance that illuminates how humans deal with both intimacy and technology—sometimes both at once.

Hailey: “12 Years a Slave.”

Megan: “American Hustle.”

Sid: “Her.” There has not been as thought-provoking and unique a movie as “Her” in ages. It addressed love and progress in a way that kept viewers just distant enough to allow them to examine their own relationships and relate to the film’s quirky romance simultaneously.

Who Should Have Been Nominated:

Adam: “Fruitvale Station.” Michael B. Jordan’s truthful performance does not shy away from Oscar’s faults but rather portrays an average male trying to change for his own betterment. Though it gained popularity this summer, the Oscar movie surge of the fall months hurt its chances. Nonetheless, I highly recommend a viewing.

Drew: “The Great Gatsby.” Baz Luhrmann’s grandiose retelling of everyone’s favorite book they read in high school carries on the spirit of the Hollywood epic. In a year full of depictions of American excess, it’s hard to fathom why this didn’t make the cut.

Hailey: “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Frozen.” Fantastic animated films should be celebrated, not confined to the Animated Features category.

Megan: “The Way, Way Back.” Also, “Stoker.”

Sid: “Fruitvale Station.” I have never heard a theater more silent at the end of a film. Truly shocking. Also, “Inside Llewyn Davis”?! I am still dumbfounded as to how this didn’t take the tenth slot in the Best Picture nominations. Also, what about “The Way, Way Back”? It’s time for the Academy to start recognizing some youthful, less weighty films for Best Picture.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

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This one seems like a set-in-stone victory for the film industry’s favorite Texan. Chiwetel Ejiofor and Leonardo Dicaprio both remain strong contenders and could very well pull off the upset.

Who Will Win

Adam: Matthew McConaughey. McConaughey brings forth a performance no one could have expected. I mean, let’s be honest, he was typecast as a romantic comedy man in films like “How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days” and “Failure Launch.” This year has been quite the turn around with films like “Mud” and his brief but unforgettable cameo in “The Wolf of Wall Street.” With Golden Globe and SAG awards already in the bag, I don’t think his win streak will end on Oscar night.

Drew: Matthew McConaughey. McConaughey is a revelation in a very difficult role—the highlight of a true renaissance for an actor previously dismissed for taking on lightweight characters.

Hailey: Matthew McConaughey.

Megan: Matthew McConaughey.

Sid: Matthew McConaughey. He deserved it much more for his incredible role in “Mud,” but this will do for now.

Who Should Win

Adam: Chiwetel Ejiofor. The soulful performance from Chiwetel is what holds “12 Years a Slave” together. Chiwetel demands no pity but rather asks for understanding. His masterful performance is the one of a lifetime, and, hopefully, come Oscar night he will walk away with the statue that he so obviously deserves.

Drew: Matthew McConaughey. This is the tightest race for Best Actor in many years, but a McConaughey win will likely cap off his reinvention. Christian Bale would also be a good choice for his equally transformative work in American Hustle.

Hailey: Leonardo DiCaprio. There’s so much buzz about this potentially being DiCaprio’s first Oscar; and he will eventually get his, but not with this performance and not this Sunday.

Megan: Matthew McConaughey

Sid: Chiwetel Ejiofor. The most intimate, close-up and affecting performance of the year. He has most definitely come a long way since portraying that one guy in “Love Actually.”

Who Should Have Been Nominated

Adam: This list could go on forever: Tom Hanks, Robert Redford or even Michael B. Jordan. Personally I would consider Joaquin Phoenix’s subtle but moving performance as Theodore Twombly’s lonely card-writer finding love with his artificial intelligence system. His performance was poignant and heartrending as he experiences and contemplates the complexities of love in the society that he lives in.

Drew: Miles Teller. Teller is excellent in this story of an aimless high school student, and he brings a huge degree of pathos to what could be a stock part. Look for him in the next five years to become a major force. [Teller recently was announced as Mr. Fantastic in the new “The Fantastic Four” movie. – Ed.]

Hailey: ROBERT REDFORD. An entire, flawless movie with one actor, almost no dialogue, and he didn’t even get a nomination? Please. Also: Tom Hanks, Oscar Isaac and James Gandolfini.

Megan Rise: Steve Coogan for “Philomena.”

Sid: Michael B. Jordan for “Fruitvale Station.” Jordan poured his heart and soul into the most morally gray character of the year and doesn’t even get an Oscar nomination? What happened to all of the buzz around the movie earlier this year?

Best Actress in a Leading Role

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Megan, with an unconventional pick, breaks what could have been another rare showing of unity among the Recess staff.

Who Will Win

Adam: Cate Blanchett. This is, ladies and gentlemen, what we like to call a shoo-in. Her pretentious and snobby performance of a one-percenter’s fall from grace is captivating and spot on. Her greatest competition this year, Sandra Bullock’s near solo performance in “Gravity,” is just not enough to break Cate’s streak. Coming off wins from the Golden Globes. SAG, and BAFTAs, it seems clear that Cate is on her way to Oscar glory.

Drew: Cate Blanchett. Blanchett’s master class in acting makes her a near lock for the Best Actress race. She never portrays her unlikeable character as a monster, and her delicate shading makes Jasmine an identifiable presence rather than a cartoon.

Hailey: Cate Blanchett. Blanchett has been the frontrunner in this category since the film opened in July 2013, and with recent wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and SAGs, she is a shoo-in.

Megan: Sandra Bullock.

Sid: Cate Blanchett. Even some classic Woody Allen controversy won’t stop this train from rolling.

Who Should Win

Adam: Cate Blanchett.

Drew: Amy Adams. Blanchett is a very good textbook actor, but Adams’ Sydney Prosser is an anarchic force of will. She’s incredible as a wily ingénue who cons her male partners in the game of love.

Hailey: Amy Adams. She delivered a spectacular and much more nuanced performance than Blanchett’s, and one that wasn’t even overshadowed by Jennifer Lawrence’s popularity, Christian Bale’s weight or Bradley Cooper’s perm.

Megan: Amy Adams.

Sid: Amy Adams. She is the lead actress of this generation and the thinking man’s Jennifer Lawrence. If she doesn’t get it this year, she will soon enough.

Who Should Have Been Nominated

Adam: Brie Larson. I will not forgive the Academy for this one. Brie Larson’s turn in “Short Term 12” as an at-risk-teens counselor is by far the most emotional and affecting role of this year. Her performance in this indie flick reminded me of what a breakout star looks like and, in a perfect world, she would have been rewarded for this. Instead, we get another year of Meryl.

Drew: Greta Gerwig. Gerwig’s portrait of a dancer adrift in New York is a searing view into the lives of post-grads who can’t get on with their lives. It’s a shame that she won’t be acting in movies for the for-seeable future due to her commitment to CBS’s “How I Met Your Dad.”

Hailey: Emma Thompson and Julie Deply.

Megan: Greta Gerwig.

Sid: Greta Gerwig.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

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This category has been a lock since the nominations were released. Leto’s award is as assured as Ledger’s was in 2009. In any other year, Abdi, Cooper or Fassbender would have been worthy contenders, but this year belongs to Leto.

Who Will Win

Adam: Jared Leto. Ok, so this is the other shoo-in of this Oscar season. Leto gives an unbelievably touching performance. No scene is more powerful than when Rayon confronts his father’s disappointment in a desperate plea for money. Leto will and should win this year.

Drew: Jared Leto. Leto’s performance is just as transformative and revelatory as McConaughey’s, and he makes a strong case for his abilities as a serious actor.

Hailey: Jared Leto.

Megan: Jared Leto.

Sid: Jared Leto. Leto carried this movie with the sheer force of his spectacular performance. McConaughey was pretty good, but, oh boy. Jared Leto stole every single scene where he was present. This is not just hype.

Who Should Win

Adam: Jared Leto.

Drew: Michael Fassbender. Fassbender is absolutely terrifying in his role as a sadistic slave-owner, and the gravitas he brings to what could have been a stock villain role is worthy of the award.

Hailey: Jared Leto, obviously.

Megan: Barkhad Abdi.

Sid: Look. I want to say that Barkhad Abdi, a fellow Minnesotan, should take home the trophy. I want to give the award to Fassbender, who delivered the most malicious, cold and terrifying performance of the year. But Jared Leto rightfully deserves this one.

Who Should Have Been Nominated

Adam: James Gandolfini. One of Gandolfini’s last performances before his passing revealed a side of him that we had never seen before. Unlike his normal tough Mafioso type roles, Gandolfini plays a shy, gentle single father who starts a relationship with Eve, a woman in a similar position, in this year’s romantic comedy success “Enough Said.” His subtle performance as Albert highlights his versatility as an actor, something that will be greatly missed now that he’s gone. A posthumous nomination was expected for such a legend.

Drew: James Franco. Franco’s wacky drug-lord Alien is the most memorable part of Harmony Korine’s instant camp classic, and his monologue about his material possessions should have been reason enough to nominate him.

Hailey:

Megan: Matthew McConaughey, for “Mud.”

Sid: Matthew McConaughey, for “Mud.” He delivered a far more touching and personal performance than his acting in “Dallas Buyers Club,” and it’s a shame he won’t even get a nod for this category.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

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Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence are neck and neck in the awards season thus far, and Recess seems to think that it could go either way.

Who Will Win

Adam: Lupita Nyong’o. In her first performance ever, Lupita brings forth the most sympathetic and tormented role this Oscar season without shying away from the inner pain of her position. Though the debate between her and Lawrence has been back and forth, with Nyong’o’s SAG victory, I think she’s on her way to Oscar gold.

Drew: Lupita Nyong’o. Nyong’o’s first acting role is stunning, and she is the emotional center of a movie that puts its audience through the ringer.

Hailey: Jennifer Lawrence. We love JLaw in an interview, but, honestly, her performance is all of the hype with none of the acting substance.

Megan: Jennifer Lawrence.

Sid: Jennifer Lawrence. If I’m being honest, I will be upset if she actually wins. I love JLaw just as much as every single person in the universe ever, but she would be riding this wave of hype in for a rather undeserved Oscar.

Who Should Win

Adam: Jennifer Lawrence. Let me just say right now that I am a little biased because, not only am I a huge Jennifer Lawrence fan, but I am also in love with her Long Island accent in “American Hustle.” As Christian Bale’s attractive manipulative wife, Lawrence steals scenes with her hilarious commentary about her husband and his business. Fingers crossed that she joins the club of back-to-back Oscar winners.

Drew: Lupita Nyong’o. Nyong’o’s performance deserves the award, though Jennifer Lawrence’s performance in “American Hustle” as a crazy housewife is the most fun thing I saw at the movies in 2013.

Hailey: Lupita Nyong’o.

Megan: Jennifer Lawrence.

Sid: Lupita Nyong’o. I still haven’t recovered from her scenes in “12 Years a Slave.”

Who Should Have Been Nominated

Adam: Octavia Spencer. To be honest this was a good year for best supporting actresses, and I do believe that the Academy Awards got it right. Nonetheless, if I had one suggestion, it would be to replace Sally Hawkins with Octavia Spencer. Spencer’s turn as a concerned mother in “Fruitvale Station” grounded Jordan’s performance because it reminded us of the relations that affected his life. It’s definitely an unnoticed role this Oscar season.

Drew: Emma Watson. Watson sheds her British accent to portray a conniving LA teenager who robs from celebrities in Sofia Coppola’s lament of the corruption American youth. Watson is a scene-stealer as the most corrupt, savvy teen of the group.

Hailey: Oprah and Scarlett Johansson

Megan: Octavia Spenser, for “Fruitvale Station.”

Sid: Scarlett Johansson. This would have been the year for the Academy to overcome their stigma against “non-human” roles. Andy Serkis has already been shunned twice (“Lord of the Rings,” “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”) because he was acting in a CGI body. But, really, Scarlett’s voice gave one hell of a performance.

Best Directing

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This race has come down to an epic battle between the technical prowess of Alfonso Cuarón, the dark, gritty work of Steve McQueen and David O. Russell’s beautiful management of an ensemble cast.

Who Will Win

Adam: Alfonso Cuarón. Well known for his talent for extended shots in his films, Alfonso outdoes himself with “Gravity”’s 17 minute, extraordinarily well executed opening sequence. His directional talents are unmatched in Hollywood today, especially with “Gravity”’s difficult, zero-gravity filming situation. Winning the Directors Guild Award should be enough to power Cuarón through to a triumph.

Drew: Alfonso Cuarón. Cuarón defied what was previously thought possible in the field of direction with his visually astounding and emotionally involving space thriller. No other CGI-heavy movie has ever looked this good, and who knew the camera could be so dynamic?

Megan: Alfonso Cuarón.

Sid: Alfonso Cuarón. He created a technological masterpiece, and we know the Academy appreciates those.

Who Should Win

Adam: Alfonso Cuarón.

Drew: Alfonso Cuarón. Cuarón deserves this for advancing the possibilities of visual cinema, but “12 Years A Slave”’s Steve McQueen would also be a deserving candidate for the award.

Megan: David O. Russell.

Sid: Alfonso Cuarón. I’m not going to argue with this one. Cuarón changed filmmaking with “Gravity,” and he deserves some serious recognition for that.

Who Should have Been Nominated

Adam: Spike Jonze for “Her.” Jonze’s directional talents in films like “Being John Malkovich” and “Adaptation” have finally led to his finest masterpiece yet. Continuing a trend of eccentric storytelling, Jonze directs a stunning success with “Her”’s intricate plot and attention to detail. Though he was snubbed a much deserved nomination for direction, he will almost definitely acquire an Academy Award for original screenplay in his first writing attempt ever.

Drew: Spike Jonze. Jonze’s signature touch elevates this movie from its potentially hacky premise to a beautiful meditation of the nature of relationships.

Megan: Spike Jonze.

Sid: Spike Jonze. This isn’t a snub on the level of Ben Affleck last year, but Jonze made a truly innovative film in “Her.” It is a shame that innovation still has trouble being recognized at awards shows.

Best Music (Original Song)

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Mainstream America can rejoice as Idina Menzel, Bono, Pharell Williams, Karen O and Pharell’s hat battle it out for the Oscar.

Who Will Win

Drew: ‘Happy’ by Pharrell Williams.

Hailey: ‘Ordinary Love’ by U2.

Megan: ‘Let It Go’ by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez.

Sid: ‘Let It Go’ by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez. Competition never bothered it anyway.

Who Should Win

Drew: ‘Happy’ by Pharrell Williams.

Hailey: ‘Let It Go’ by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez. When Idina sings, you listen.

Megan: ‘The Moon Song’ by Karen O. Because Karen O is a goddess, but actually ‘Ordinary Love’ because it’s a better song.

Sid: ‘Happy’ by Pharrell Williams. If only so we can see another bizarre outfit and embarrassingly inadequate thank you speech. Please, Academy, make this happen. But, really, I love ‘Moon Song,’ even if it doesn’t have the kind of mainstream appeal the Academy is looking for.

Who Should have Been Nominated

Drew: ‘Young and Beautiful’ by Lana Del Rey, from “The Great Gatsby.”

Hailey: ‘Young and Beautiful’ by Lana Del Rey.

Megan: ‘Becomes the Color’ by Emily Wells, from Stoker.

Sid: ‘Young and Beautiful’ by Lana Del Rey.