Tobacco Road showdown could determine No. 1 NCAA seed

In the second edition of the Tobacco Road showdown, Duke will be playing for the ACC regular season championship and likely a number one seed in the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual locks for two of the four number one seeds in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky head coach John Calipari’s squad has one of the most impressive resumes in the nation with quality wins over Kansas, North Carolina, Florida and Vanderbilt (twice). The Wildcats’ lone blemish on their record came in early December at a raucous Assembly Hall on an Indiana three-point shot at the buzzer. The selection committee does take geographic proximity into consideration for number one seeds, so expect the Wildcats to be the top seed of the South Region, which will be played in Atlanta.

Similarly, Syracuse only has one loss this year and the Orange play in the Big East, which is arguably the toughest basketball conference in the land. With wins over Florida, Marquette, Connecticut (twice), Louisville, West Virginia and Georgetown, Syracuse will almost certainly be the top seed in the East Region of the NCAA tournament, hosted by Pittsburgh.

That leaves two number one seeds up for grabs. Regardless of what happens the rest of the season, the worst seed the Blue Devils will end up with is likely a two seed. Currently, the Blue Devils have a resume that rivals anyone in the country with marquee victories over Michigan State, Kansas, Michigan, Washington, Virginia, at North Carolina and at Florida State.

For Duke the path to a number one seed in the tournament is very clear. If the Blue Devils can defeat a championship-caliber Tar Heels squad for a second time this year, the selection committee will most likely reward Duke with a number one seed, especially since they own victories over both Michigan State and Kansas on neutral floors, who are considered to be the other two teams in the mix for the final top seeds.

If the Blue Devils do earn a number one seed, the selection committee will likely ship Duke out to the West Region, which will be in Phoenix. The reason that the Blue Devils would be forced to go West for the second straight year is Kansas’ late season surge. With a huge victory over Missouri last week and clinching the Big 12 regular season championship on Monday, Kansas is in prime position to secure a number one seed also. If the Jayhawks have a strong showing in the Big 12 tournament, they will likely be the top seed in the Midwest Region in Saint Louis.

Michigan State may have played their way out of contention for a number one seed after their disappointing 15-point loss at Indiana on Monday night, which is their sixth loss of the year. The Spartans host Ohio State on Sunday to close out the regular season. It will likely take a victory against the Buckeyes as well as a Big Ten tournament championship to propel the Spartans to a number one seed, and even then that might not be enough depending on how Duke and North Carolina, who have both beaten the Spartans, finish the year.

North Carolina is not out of the running for a number one seed either. If the Tar Heels defeat Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium and then go on to win the ACC tournament, they will could very well end up with a one seed and knock Duke down to a No. 2 seed.