A decisive frontrunner has yet to emerge in the Republican nominating contest.
Mitt Romney won five states and Rick Santorum won three during the Super Tuesday contests. Newt Gingrich pulled off a victory in his home state of Georgia. Because the candidates split the states’ votes, the Republican contest is not likely to officially end until the Republican National Convention in August, experts said. A long race—combined with Romney’s inability to consolidate a conservative base—may also point to larger problems for Republicans in the general election.
“It looks like the results tonight are very mixed,” said Christopher Gelpi, professor of political science. “Romney and Santorum each are on track to win several states and Gingrich will win solidly in Georgia. That should be enough support to keep all of Romney's challengers in the race. The route toward collecting a majority of delegates continues to get more difficult for Santorum, but Romney seems unable to shake him off.”
Super Tuesday is the day during a presidential primary season when the most states hold simultaneous primary elections. This year, 10 states held elections: Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, Vermont, Virginia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Georgia and Alaska. Of these, Romney won the Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, Vermont, Virginia and Alaska, and Santorum won North Dakota, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
Gelpi said that the durability of the Santorum campaign, Gingrich’s win in Georgia and the delegates awarded to Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas and Medicine ’61, suggest the nomination contest will not end for a long time.
Romney did, however, win Tuesday night’s biggest prize—battleground state Ohio—and it still seems all but inevitable that he will ultimately win the nomination due to his campaign’s organization and resources.
“Tonight we've taken one more step towards restoring the promise of America,” Romney said during his victory speech in Boston. “Tomorrow we wake up and we start again. And the next day we'll do the same. And so it will go, day by day, step by step, door by door, heart to heart.”
Although Romney’s wins have increased his lead in the delegate count versus competitors, Romney’s inability to form a conservative coalition could point to problems in the coming weeks, said Tim Buthe, assistant professor of political science.
“Tonight's results highlight Romney's real problem, which will become fully apparent only after the nomination contest ends,” Buthe wrote in an email. “Republicans have generally more reliably supported their party's nominee, whoever it turned out to be, than Democrats. But the resistance to ‘falling in line’ behind Romney comes precisely from the substantial share of Republicans with intense ideological convictions and doubts about Romney's conservatism.”
Buthe added that this could be especially troubling because conservatives may punish Romney if he—like most other presidential candidates—moves to the center after his nomination in order to win over independent voters.
“[Conservatives] would see Romney shifting his positions toward the center as a vindication of their worst fears,” he said. “If he moves truly toward the center, he risks losing at least the turnout of this core Republican constituency.”
Gelpi said that some conservatives, particularly Christian voters, may be unwilling to embrace Romney due to his Mormon faith. Many Christians do not consider Mormonism a traditional Christian religion.
Junior Will Reach, former chair of Duke College Republicans, said the mixed results show a need for the eventual GOP nominee to unite the otherwise divided party.
“Whoever the presidential nominee is, he will need to adequately foster party unity and enthusiasm come November,” Reach said, noting he believes Romney will ultimately win the nomination.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.