The second-seeded Blue Devils tip off for the first time in the ACC tournament at 7 p.m. tonight against a Virginia Tech team they defeated twice this season.
In their first game of the season, Duke won 75-60 in Blacksburg, Va. But the Blue Devils needed overtime to prevail 70-65 when the two teams battled at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Last year, the Blue Devils knocked the Hokies out of the ACC tournament with a 77-63 victory. Can they do the same again?
Here’s a look at what went right and what went wrong for Duke in the two matchups this season and what the team needs to do to advance to the ACC semifinals.
Duke 75, Virginia Tech 60
- What went wrong: defending the post — Forward Victor Davila made 6-of-8 shots in the game, scoring 16 points while pulling down seven rebounds. He is injured and will not play against the Blue Devils tonight, but Duke has regularly been beaten in the paint this season by non-elite big men, such as Miami’s Reggie Johnson, who scored a season-high 27 points at Cameron Indoor Stadium Feb. 5. Virginia Tech forward Cadarian Raines is averaging 13.0 points per game in the team’s last four contests and the Blue Devils post defenders must be wary of giving him room to work tonight.
- What went right: putting them away — Unlike many games this year, the Blue Devils were able to build a first-half lead and prevent the game from coming down to the wire. Duke went into the break leading by 10, and since then, the Blue Devils have led at the half by double digits only once, when they held an 11-point advantage against Wake Forest Feb. 28. But the Demon Deacons fought back to make for a scary second half. By contrast, the Blue Devils dominated the Hokies and put them away, building a second-half lead as large as 22 points and never allowing them within 10.
Duke 70, Virginia Tech 65 (OT)
- What went wrong: 3-point shooting — Even though the Blue Devils won, this game exposed the flaws of Duke’s reliance on 3-point shooting. They shot 6-of-24 from beyond the arc and could easily have lost the game if the Hokies had not shot a pitiful 7-of-16 from the foul line. Mason and Miles Plumlee were both huge down the stretch for Duke—Mason notched a big offensive rebound and layup in regulation’s final minute while Miles hit two big free throws in overtime. But throughout the game they were largely excluded from the offense, combining for just eight shot attempts. By relying on 3-point shooting so heavily not involving the Plumlees, the Blue Devils almost surrendered another home loss in this game.
- What went right: getting to the line — As poor as their 3-point shooting was in this game, Duke managed to spend a significant amount of time at the charity stripe. The foul shooting itself was far from perfect, as the team shot just 24-of-34, but getting to the line 34 times in one game is a formula for success. But any team that gets to the foul line 34 times in a given game should be able to come away with a win.
What needs to happen for Duke to win this time
- Feed the Plumlee brothers – Ryan Kelly is injured for the ACC tournament and that could be a blessing in disguise for a Blue Devil squad that relies so heavily on 3-point shooting. Mason and Miles Plumlee need to be effective in the post for this team to be winning games late in March. Tonight's game will be a good time to establish the post against a Hokie team that is lacking frontcourt depth, with forward Victor Davila injured. Mason and Miles played well in the team’s finale against North Carolina, leading the team with 17 and 16 points, respectively. They should be involved early and often in this game.
- Avoid the 3-point quicksand – There is a tendency on this team to remedy poor 3-point shooting by taking even more long shots. Although many of the extra 3-pointers are good looks, the team needs to focus more on its post play and driving if the shots aren’t going in. Seth Curry and Austin Rivers are great penetrators and can get to the foul line, and Duke should take better advantage of their skills. Three-point shooting is critical to this team’s success, but the guards must focus on attacking the basket as well.
Prediction: Duke 78, Virginia Tech 61
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