For a basketball program accustomed to top-10 rankings, first-place ACC finishes and No. 1 NCAA Tournament seeds, the number 89 seems out of place—unless it’s referring to some sort of winning streak.
Unfortunately, that number may come to define the rest of season for the 2012 Blue Devils. Basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks Duke 89th in adjusted defense—a measure that looks at points allowed per possession, while also accounting for opponents’ offensive efficiency and the location of the games. The last eight national champions have all ranked 16th or better in that category.
Since the adjusted defense calculation factors in the quality of the opponent, the argument that the Blue Devils’ defensive statistics are skewed as a result of their strength of schedule is specious. Frankly speaking, this year’s Duke squad does not play the same brand of stifling D that usually serves as a hallmark of the program.
The personnel available to head coach Mike Krzyzewski played a large role in dictating the team’s defensive strategy this season. And it’s clear that he hasn’t yet worked out all of the kinks. Even in early February, Krzyzewski continues to experiment with different wrinkles defensively—as shown by the insertion of Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton into the starting lineup last night against Virginia Tech.
The coaching staff has made a conscious decision to move away from the in-your-face pressure that Blue Devils of yore used to generate takeaways and start the fastbreak.
“We’re not going to be a team that’s going to press fullcourt and have turnovers,” associate head coach Steve Wojciechowski told GoDuke.com in January. “We’re not going to be able to apply that kind of pressure.”
A team committed to solid halfcourt defense must abide by a few basic principles: 1) stay in front of your man, 2) be physical and 3) rotate over to protect the rim when the opponent penetrates the lane. If the team’s perimeter defenders are still working to improve their lateral quickness and have a tendency to get beat off the dribble, the third principle takes on added importance. And successful help defense depends on constant communication among all five players on the court.
“If you’re not going to extend the floor, you’re really going to have to play as one,” Wojciechowski said.
In my last column I examined Duke’s lack of on-court leadership, and it’s no surprise the absence of a more vocal presence has led to a defensive effort that seems to be sorely lacking at times. The Blue Devils have allowed opposing teams to shoot 47.7 percent from inside the 3-point arc this season. Their conference opponents have shot 43.9 percent overall, placing Duke ninth out of the 12 ACC teams in field goal percentage defense.
Despite their defensive struggles, the Blue Devils still boast a 19-3 record and sit atop the conference standings. Duke compensates for its shortcomings on one end of the floor with excellent offensive efficiency. Pomeroy ranks the team third in adjusted offense and seventh in effective field goal percentage (a FG% stat that gives 50% more credit for made 3-pointers). Rather than mix in a zone defense with their traditional man-to-man, the Blue Devils seem determined to win by relying on their corps of sharpshooters—and Mason Plumlee’s increased production in the paint—to overwhelm opponents.
Krzyzewski probably could care less about where his defense stacks up in the Pomeroy ratings if his team continues to win games. But relying on hot shooting to overcome defensive deficiencies can backfire if opponents succeed in frustrating Duke’s offensive rhythm.
When the Blue Devils nearly squandered a 22-point lead last Saturday against St. John’s, they failed to score a field goal in the last six-and-a-half minutes of the game. And the player who almost engineered the Red Storm’s comeback was only a freshman—granted, a very talented one.
Although his team lost, Moe Harkless turned the game into his national debutante party by dropping 30 points on 13-of-21 shooting in one of the nation’s most hostile arenas. He became the first freshman to score 30 in Cameron since Virginia’s Courtney Alexander did so in 1996.
“The execution defensively wasn’t there, and St. John’s stayed on us,” Krzyzewski said after the game. “We started missing, and suddenly, there’s a lot of game pressure on us. How are we in this position right now? I’ll tell you how. We’re not playing defense.”
Florida State was arguably the first team to expose some of the flaws in Duke’s bend-but-don’t-break philosophy. And St. John’s certainly won’t be the last if the Blue Devils don’t start taking more pride on the defensive end.
Jeff Scholl is a Duke senior and former managing editor of The Chronicle’s sports section. His column runs on a bi-weekly basis.
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