Following Gov. Bev Perdue’s decision not to run for re-election last month, Democrats now face the challenge of finding a nominee to face Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory.
Former Charlotte Mayor McCrory, who narrowly lost to Perdue in the 2008 governor’s race, is the current frontrunner in the contest, according to the latest data from Public Policy Polling. Former U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge is leading among potential Democratic candidates, with 21 percent of N.C. Democrats pledging their support for Etheridge. State Sen. Dan Blue trails closely behind, attracting 13 percent of Democratic voters. More than one-third of voters, however, said they are still undecided. Despite McCrory’s lead in the polls, some Democrats believe it is too early to predict the outcome.
Two large issues that will likely be at the forefront of the candidates’ political platforms are the economy and education cuts.
“The economy is a problem that will receive attention nationally, but in North Carolina the main issue is education,” said Mac McCorkle, former political consultant and visiting lecturer at the Sanford School of Public Policy. “People are nervous about lots of cuts that the Republicans are coming out.”
Perdue’s decision not to run may put the Democratic Party through a few hoops before securing a candidate, McCorkle said.
“I worked with Bev for a long time, and I was surprised at her decision,” he said. “She became a partisan lightning rod…. It is a blow to the Democratic Party.
Following Perdue’s decision, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and N.C. Rep. Bill Faison declared their intentions to run in the Democratic primary, with Etheridge announcing his decision one week later. Blue and state Rep. Brad Miller said they will announce their intentions in the near future.
Pearse Edwards, campaign spokesman for Dalton’s campaign, said he believes that there is little weight to McCrory’s lead in polls because many voters have yet to pay close attention to the race. One of the main criticisms of McCrory—that he supports the Republican agenda and cuts in education funding—may prove unappealing to voters, Edwards said.
In response, Brian Nick, spokesman for McCrory’s campaign, noted that McCrory has shown strong support for education, citing McCrory’s opposition to Democrats’ proposed sales tax increase for education.
“The Democrats in charge have increased taxes and have made North Carolina a very unattractive place for businesses to invest,” Nicks said. “Pat will run on the agenda of reversing this trend.”
Although Perdue would have been the candidate most likely to win for the Democrats, Etheridge or Dalton has the potential to defeat McCrory, McCorkle noted.
McCrory has shifted further to the right in recent years, which may impact his support among moderates and independents, McCorkle said.
“McCrory has been around for a while, and some voters will get suspicious once someone loses, like McCrory did in 2008,” McCorkle said. “It is easy to blame people, but now he has to actually lay out a platform and say what he will do as governor.”
Frontrunner McCrory is hoping for a different outcome than his failed 2008 campaign. Nick attributed McCrory’s defeat to a difficult political environment for Republicans across the nation. President Barack Obama’s strong base coupled with former President George W. Bush’s unpopularity in the state propelled Perdue to victory, Nick said, adding that he is optimistic about McCrory’s chances this year.
McCorkle similarly noted that the 2012 presidential election will also play a role in the governor’s race, as it did in 2008.
“If Obama wins North Carolina, then the Democratic candidate for governor will probably win,” McCorkle said. “It’s not necessarily coattails, but it acts as a one-two punch. If Obama is in real trouble in North Carolina, then it will be trouble for the Democratic candidates as well.”
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