Arizona a Swing State?
Word has it that Arizona may be a target for the President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign in the 2012 presidential election. The rumor is that Arizona’s controversial and widely unpopular immigration bill, SB 1070, has motivated Democrats in the state, particularly the Latino community, to get more involved.
For those that are unaware, SB 1070 was the bill that was all over the news at the time of its passage in the summer and fall of 2010. It requires that all aliens above the age of 14 register with the U.S. government and have their registration documents in their possession at all times. The controversial piece of the legislation is the part that states that law enforcement officials have the authority to stop individuals when they think there is reasonable suspicion that said individual is an illegal alien. Many opponents read that piece of the legislation as an excuse for racial profiling. The bill has been legally challenge by the Department of Justice over its constitutionality.
In 2008, John McCain won Arizona by almost 8.5%. Excluding Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection victory, Arizona hasn’t gone to a Democrat since Harry S. Truman pulled off perhaps the greatest upset in U.S. presidential election history when he beat Thomas E. Dewey in 1948.
It is also important to note that Arizona gained an electoral vote as a result of the 2010 census, moving it to 11 votes in total. While 11 votes isn’t a huge number, it is enough to swing whole elections as Al Gore would tell you.
Newt Gingrich is a Historian
Newt Gingrich has enjoyed a bump in the polls recently, presumably due to Herman Cain’s recent gaffes and the sexual harassment scandal. With that bump comes more media coverage, and as the media dug into Gingrich’s past, it surfaced that Newt Gingrich had worked at mortgage company Freddie Mac.
From 1999 to 2002, Gingrich earned $1.6 million in consulting fees working for Freddie Mac as their self-proclaimed historian. Many in the media has accused him as using the term “historian” as a cover for what they think he really was at Freddie Mac, a lobbyist.
Gingrich worked closely with Freddie Mac’s chief lobbyist, Mitchell Delk, but Delk told Bloomberg that Gingrich was not involved in Freddie Mac’s lobbying efforts. He said that Gingrich mostly provided advice on public policy issues.
No Frontrunner in GOP Polls
In five polls released this week on the national GOP primary race, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain led two each and Mitt Romney led one. No frontrunner in any of the five polls held a lead greater than three points.
Perhaps the most interesting poll this week came from key early primary states. Romney has enjoyed double-digit leads in New Hampshire since polling began for this race, but a poll from Magellan Strategies released this past Friday bucked that trend.
The poll showed Romney with the votes of 29 percent of New Hampshire Republicans despite constantly polling at around 40 percent as of late. The poll had Gingrich in second place with a whopping 27 percent.
Although this is just one poll, the implications of a shift like this in New Hampshire would be significant. Anything less than a blowout win in New Hampshire would be considered a disappointment for the Romney campaign.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.