A closer look at Mason Plumlee

Arizona dominated Duke in the Sweet Sixteen last year, spoiling an otherwise solid season for the Blue Devils. That, coupled with the loss of Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving, had many analysts predicting Duke would be nothing more than a sleeper Final Four threat this season. Seven games into the season, however, the Blue Devils are the only unbeaten team remaining in the ACC, defeating quality opponents such as Michigan State, Michigan and Kansas. So the question on everyone’s mind is this: Does Duke have a legitimate shot at being a national title contender?

In their history, the Blue Devils have put together four championship squads, all of which featured outstanding guard play and at least one contributing post presence. With the exception of 2010, all of Duke’s title-winning squads had a dominant big man. Although they had Brian Zoubek, who played a crucial role during the second half of the season to win the 2010 national championship, he was not an offensive threat akin Christian Laettner or Carlos Boozer. Put two and two together and it’s easy to see that in order to hoist the trophy in the Superdome, Mason Plumlee will need to become the post player that scouts think he will be in the NBA.

Mason’s improvement in the post has already been displayed, especially this past week in the Maui Invitational. Not only have his numbers improved across the board (11.4 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, 66.3 field goal percentage), but also he has dramatically changed his style of play on the offensive end. Rather than simply setting picks and throwing down the occasional dunk, Mason has developed an effective hook shot—a post move that had eluded him his first two years as a Blue Devil.

The offensive spark in the post has opened up the floor for Duke’s guards. Mason’s play forces the defense to put more emphasis on defending the paint, allowing the guards to get some separation from their men. Mason then has the option of going up for a short shot or passing to the outside for a three-pointer. The separation allows the Blue Devils to shoot higher percentage three-pointers, rather than forcing an ill-advised jumper. Duke shoots about nine percent more 3-pointers per field goal attempt when Mason is on the bench, but the team’s shooting percentage drops almost 19 percent in the same scenario.

What’s curious is the point differential between when Mason is in the game and when he is not. In three games played in Maui, the Blue Devils outscored opponents by a total of nine points with him on the floor. When Mason was out, they outscored their foes by a total of 13 points. Of course these numbers are a little skewed due to last minute free throws when Mason is removed and the game is out of reach. Still, why would the point differential be so different if Mason has such an impact on the game? The answer is that, even with the junior in the game, Duke has defended very poorly in the post.

Opposing teams, both big and small, have had no trouble penetrating and getting to the basket. Keeping with the theme of using stats from the Maui Invitational, the Blue Devils were outscored 80-to-106 in the paint. This deficit came despite being outrebounded by a mere two rebounds per game. Here we see that the difference may not be height (starting lineup has an average height of 6-foot-6), but in defensive fundamentals. If the stats on the offensive end are any indication of how fast Mason can learn how to play in the post, then Duke could fix this problem sooner rather than later.