Low congressional ratings may swing NC in 2012

Low approval ratings for North Carolina congressional members may determine how the state votes in next year’s presidential election.

N.C. members of Congress saw a decrease in popularity following the political disagreements in July and August about raising the debt ceiling—the amount the nation is allowed to borrow. Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., and Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., saw their approval ratings drop from the beginning of the summer to the end. Experts believe that the drop in ratings and changing party dynamics will have a notable impact on the presidential elections next November.

“The American people are fed up with Washington-as-usual politics,” Hagan said.

Over the summer, congressional leaders took the country to what Rep. David Price, D-N.C., called the “edge of default”—a situation followed by recent media coverage of persistent unemployment, President Barack Obama’s push for the jobs program and the anniversary of Sept. 11.

According to Public Policy Polling surveys conducted in April and again in July—during the peak of the budget conflict—Hagan’s approval rating dropped from 42 percent to 38 percent. Burr’s rating fell from 37 percent to 35 percent.

“North Carolina is a battleground state and the current opinion of the state’s people of Congress matters a lot for the election’s results,” said Kerry Haynie, associate professor of political science. “The party that emerges from the scuffle less bruised will have a significant advantage in the primaries and next year’s elections.”

Still, N.C. congressional members are faring better than many of their counterparts.

Nationally, congressional job approval rating is at 15 percent—up from the record-low 13 percent last seen in August, according to last week’s Gallup poll.

After voting Republican in the seven presidential elections prior to 2008, North Carolina may revert to old habits in 2012.

The direction North Carolina takes could determine the party in power at both a state and national level next year, Haynie said. Nationally, 84 percent of Americans do not believe most members of Congress deserve re-election, and 57 percent believe their own representatives do not deserve to be re-elected—a historic high, according to a CBS News/New York Times September poll.

Haynie said the statistic signifies a divergence from the norm, when voters usually remain loyal to their respective representatives.

“It is unclear which party is seen to be the party in power [in the state] because that phrase has many different definitions,” said Pope “Mac” McCorkle, visiting lecturer in public policy. “We have a Democratic governor and a Republican-controlled legislature... so we don’t know yet which party the people will hold accountable.”

McCorkle noted the resilience of the N.C. Democratic Party in the 2010 elections and the “extraordinary” number of Democrats who survived in competitive districts in a time when most states “swung Republican.”

“This time, however, it is the Republicans’ turn to re-draw district lines,” he said. “They gain the advantage after 140 years of Democratic rule and will certainly use gerrymandering in their favor. This could completely restructure North Carolina’s representation in Congress.”

John White, director of public policy at the Greater Durham Chamber of Commerce, said in periods of national stability, people are more likely to vote along party lines. He noted, however, that people quickly change their opinion of politics and often blame the incumbents in power.

The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area in particular will impact the 2012 election.

“This is a rare instance of when the national not only affects the local, but the local can also heavily influence the national,” White said.

The Triangle is home to many unaffiliated voters whose support is key to Obama’s re-election, he added.

“The middle of the state is home to approximately 7 million of the 9 million people in the state with a little more than 1 million in just the Triangle alone,” White said. “We are the priority for Obama, and if he wants North Carolina, he needs to use a liberal stronghold for his base and maintain it.”

White noted that Obama won by a slim margin in the 2008 election and will need to spend a significant amount of time altering the image of Democrats in N.C.—especially Democratic members of Congress.

“Based on these congressional numbers, people are disillusioned with government,” White said. “That could be a heavy blow to the Democrats and Obama.”

McCorkle noted that most voters do not follow the actions of their individual representatives, but rather, act on their general perception of the party.

“The most important thing for any Congress person is not their personal image but the rank of their party, especially with upcoming elections,” Price said.

The blame game

Partisan conflicts during the summer budget talks have carried over to the current congressional scene.

Rob Lockwood, communications director for the N.C. Republican Party, believes the burden of responsibility for the low congressional ratings lies with Democrats in the Senate for refusing to vote on the budgetary proposal set forth by representatives from both parties in the House of Representatives.

Burr and Republican representatives could not be reached for comment over three days last week.

Price, however, noted that Republicans in Congress failed to compromise out of fear of losing political points. Although the debt ceiling has been raised five times since 2001, the possibility of the government defaulting this summer and not being able to pay its bills had never been “so real,” he added.

Finding commonalities across parties could serve to up the approval ratings of members of both parties.

“The political game-playing must stop,” Hagan said. “Both parties must come together to pass bipartisan bills that tackle the jobs crisis America is facing.”