For those that have followed my coverage of Duke football over the David Cutcliffe era, you have likely come to expect my annual proclamation that “This is it—make or break.” Or “bowl or bust.” Grouping the espousal of similar commentary with the flock of teary-eyed parents leaving East Campus on move-in day as annual fall events is understandable, but this year the product on the field is different.
Reaching the postseason is something that Cutcliffe must do to take the next step towards establishing some degree of lasting credibility for his program. After three seasons where 12 total wins was one more than the combined number of victories by the previous 6 seasons, there has clearly been progress. But the team has failed to sustain any of its momentum over the course of a full season.
Funny thing is, three years ago these results would have been considered a wild success. But, just like the trick-or-treater that gets a King Size bar and then will never be satisfied with less, improvement has been dangled in front of the Duke faithful for too long and now even more is expected.
One major problem that the program has confronted in recent seasons was a lack of depth. Thanks to a renewed focus of the coaching staff on capturing in-state talent while still hitting the national recruiting trail, the depth chart is looking as strong as it has since Cutcliffe arrived in Durham. The increased competition, especially on the defensive side of the ball, will certainly pay dividends.
Taking a look at the schedule, there are five games that leap out as ones in which the Blue Devils should be favored. These matchups include the season opener at home against Richmond, nonconference tilts with Tulane and Florida International, a home game against Wake Forest, and a road matchup with Virginia.
Then, while they may not be expected to win road contest with Boston College and a home outing with rebuilding Georgia Tech, both of these games are very winnable. Winning the first five games and then splitting the last two would give Duke the six wins it needs to qualify for a bowl game.
To really clear the proverbial hurdle and become competitive in the conference, Duke needs a signature win against a perennial conference power. Cutcliffe has yet to beat Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, or North Carolina, all teams on the slate in the upcoming season. While stealing a victory against those teams was unthinkable in years past, Duke has the offensive firepower to keep itself in a ballgame with those foes. Still, its bowl hopes aren’t contingent on pulling off one of those shockers.
It all starts with Sean Renfree, who will be spending his second full season under center. According to Cutcliffe, who has tutored his fair share of talented signal callers, Renfree was very impressive throughout the spring as he worked to build on last season’s success and improve his ball security.
Renfree threw for over 3,000 yards and 14 touchdowns while completing over 60 percent of his passes last season, clearly demonstrating that he has the skills to succeed in the spread system. With All-ACC wideouts Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner along with youngster Brandon Braxton split out wide, and rapidly-emerging tight end Cooper Helfet working the middle, opposing secondaries will not be looking forward to their matchup with the Blue Devils.
The problem for Renfree last year was his 17 interceptions, which singlehandedly put Duke out of contention in some games. That turnover trend declined in the latter part of the season, though, and with four starters returning on the offensive line, all signs point towards Renfree cutting down on his turnovers.
In addition to protecting Renfree’s blindside, the unit up front is going to be tasked with creating better running lanes for a full stable of running backs. Despite an anemic ground attack the last few seasons, heralded local product Desmond Scott has shown flashes of brilliance and speedster Josh Snead performed well in limited action as a freshman.
With the current offensive personnel, pounding the ball in between the tackles will never be the focus. The emergence of these backs, though, would allow the ground game to develop as a nice change of pace. Not only would this lead to more balance, but it would help keep the defense fresh deep into the Fall. Fatigue has clearly been a problem for Duke in seasons past; the Blue Devils are 1-12 in November during Cutcliffe’s reign.
After switching to a 3-4 defense this year, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is moving to a 4-2-5 scheme with the hope of getting his best athletes on the field for as many plays as possible. Innovating can’t be a bad thing for a team that gave up 35.4 points a game last year, good for 109th in the country. It’s hard to pinpoint the unit’s struggles on one group, though, since the Blue Devils ranked last in the ACC and 113th in the country with just 12 sacks. If some of the young defensive lineman can emerge as pass rushers, conditions can only improve for a defense that needs to be serviceable.
Come December, I fully anticipate my fall proclamation proving to be true. So, hold up on booking your ski trip or making your reservations in the Caribbean, you may have a chance to celebrate the holiday season with the Duke football team for the first time since 1994. I know I plan on being in a press box somewhere in December.
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