No reason a team this talented can’t make it to Indy

Although Duke has faltered of late—going only 6-3 since its 20-0 start to the season—there’s reason to believe that the Blue Devils are capable of making a run to the Final Four.

All it will take are two home wins and a pair of neutral court victories, where Duke’s staunch defense will lead the team to Indianapolis.

First and foremost: We know for a fact that the first two rounds will take place in Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Duke is 15-0 and has won by an average margin of more than 20 points, despite having played six ranked teams. Only five of the wins were by single digits and those only came against top-15 opponents. The Blue Devils’ first two opponents would be heavy underdogs on a neutral court. In Cameron, they essentially have no chance.

The third and fourth rounds, the real focus of the question, will obviously be more difficult for Duke. But for defensive teams like the Blue Devils, overcoming “difficult” does not require a miraculous shooting night or an awful performance from the opponent—it just requires maximum intensity on both ends of the floor. Fortunately for the Blue Devils, they’ve proven they can bring that energy.

In their three losses, Duke has allowed its opponents to rack up an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.2. In the Blue Devils’ wins, though, their opponents notched more than twice as many turnovers as assists. Those stats were generated against some of the best teams in the country, too, not just cellar-dwellers.

Then-No. 4 Xavier, for example, managed only eight assists and 30 turnovers. Even with the Blue Devils struggling to get buckets and putting up their fewest points and lowest shooting performance of the year, they still won because their defense was impenetrable. The Musketeers held a 11-percent edge in shooting percentage but lost, fittingly, as a result of Jasmine Thomas’s last-second block.

In addition to a dynamic defense game, Duke has shown it has the deep bench needed to advance to the Final Four for the first time in the McCallie era. Yes, will undoubtedly need major contributions from their seniors, Jasmine Thomas, Krystal Thomas and Karima Christmas. And based on their talent and experience, there’s no reason to doubt the trio can provide them. But the X-factor will be the play of Duke’s supporting cast, which includes Tricia Liston, Haley Peters and Allison Vernerey. As McCallie said at the press conference following Sunday’s victory over North Carolina, “People have to be ready and know their role…. On any given night it could be somebody different—and that’s what our team has to embrace… because of the nature of these games.”

Ultimately, the physicality and randomness of late-round NCAA Tournament games make them unpredictable. The Blue Devils offense embodies this randomness in that it comes from different sources—but the defense is nearly always there to provide the foundation for victory.