In the world of baseball, hotter temperatures may lead to more heated players.
After a pitcher’s teammates have been hit at bat by the opposing team during a game, the pitcher is more likely to retaliate by hitting his opponents at higher temperatures. These heated environments apparently increase hostility when teammates are hit by a pitch, while decreasing restraint against retaliation, according to “Temper, Temperature, and Temptation: Heat-Related Retaliation in Baseball,” a study conducted by researchers in the Fuqua School of Business and published last month in Psychological Science.
“The baseball lore, ‘a batter for a batter,’ where I hit one of your guys if you hit one of mine, only applies in hot weather,” said Richard Larrick, professor of management at Fuqua and co-author on the paper. “People are more aggressive on hot days because they are more uncomfortable and more easily angered.”
Data for this study was collected from 57,293 Major League Baseball games. Overall, there is a 0.7% chance that a player will be hit by a pitch, and that player is 1% more likely to be hit if the temperature is above 90 degrees and two teammates have already been hit, Larrick said. In terms of the roughly 1,500 batters hit each year, 100 more would be hit in 90 degree weather, and 100 fewer in 50 degree weather, he added.
The chart to the left shows the relationship between the probability of a batter getting hit and the temperature and number of teammates hit during the game. Even when controlling for many other factors, it is clear that temperature increases the probability of a player getting hit, and its impact varies with the number of teammates hit by opposing pitchers.
Aggression generally increases on hotter days, in baseball and in other contexts such as violent crimes, Larrick said. Unlike in cold temperatures when people can wear a jacket to stay warm, people in hot temperatures tend to be more uncomfortable and easily irritated. People are more likely to interpret actions such as someone hitting or insulting as hostile in hot weather, and are also more likely to take revenge.
Hot weather may also impact other sports, such as football and soccer, Larrick noted. Football players, for example, could accumulate more fouls in hot temperatures if their teammates have also been fouled. In soccer, a similar situation could happen with yellow and red cards.
Larrick added that this research will be especially important in the baseball industry, as well as on the academic side when they analyze emotional conflict. Socially this study can help them understand how fights break out and how people can be more likely to retaliate in high temperatures, he said.
“I don’t want to go too far with [the implications], though,” Larrick said. “I’m not sure I could predict bar fights, but this is at least analogous to understanding why more conflict occurs on hot days because more people are more easily provoked.”
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