Well, that’s a relief.
No, Coach K and the Blue Devils won’t match Bob Knight’s 1976 Hoosiers, but I’d like to propose that it’s for the best. Just ask the 2007 Patriots, or better yet, the 1991 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, whose quest to go undefeated ended in the NCAA tournament at the hands of Christian Laettner and Grant Hill.
In the age of the 24-hour news cycle, though, a game and a half of bad basketball has not only cost Duke its top ranking, but also inspired a multitude of columns pointing out the Blue Devils’ glaring weaknesses. Most have focused on Duke’s apparent overreliance on three-point shooting over the past three games, a symptom reminiscent of the J.J. Redick-era teams that bowed out of the NCAA Tournament early. This has been pointed out as a major symptom of the Blue Devils’ shortcomings just days removed from praising the team as the best in the country. With Duke now No. 4 in the Associated Press poll—and the team looking like the live-by-the-3 teams of the past—the sky is apparently falling.
Not so fast. Despite the underachieving team performances of last week, Mason Plumlee has begun to shine on the glass, reminiscent of Brian Zoubek a year ago. Anyone who watched last year’s team knows how large an impact Zoubek had down the stretch, most notably his 10.1 rebound-per-game average following the February trouncing of Maryland in Cameron Indoor Stadium, in which the big man had 16 points and 17 rebounds. Indeed, the “Zoubek effect” was crucial in bringing home a national title, even more so than Scheyer’s ballhandling or Singler’s shooting.
Through the fall there was little sign that the gap Zoubek left could be filled by any of the post players on the roster. Duke dropped from 5th a year ago to 92nd in national rebounding margin in his absence, including dismal performances that left it outrebounded by Princeton and UNC-Greensboro. People didn’t realize that the dearth of rebounders was such a big issue, because the Blue Devils shot the ball so much better than they did at this time last year—40.8 percent versus 38.5 percent.
But after the shooting performances of last week, it’s evident that the threes won’t always fall. Behind Mason Plumlee’s rebounding, that may not be an issue.
Plumlee’s improvements on the offensive glass are most promising. Offensive boards most obviously lead to a greater number of shooting opportunities, but also to more space around the key. Post defenders often must choose before stepping up in the lane to cut off a driver, giving up prime rebounding position, or give up the drive in order to stick with their man in the post. Nolan Smith’s poor shooting of late, a combined 11-of-35 against the Terrapins and Florida State, is largely the result of the former, with coaches beginning to tell their big men to leave the Plumlees unguarded under the hoop to keep Smith out of the lane.
However, I think the Blue Devils are in the midst of a transformation that will take them back towards the team they were last season, led by the younger Plumlee. Although the sophomore had a rough fall—pointed out in this space perhaps too often by myself—his last two games have quietly been the best of his young career. Eight points combined is nothing special, but thirty rebounds is, especially against the Florida State and Virginia backcourts. And while two games is too small a sample size to make any kind of predictions about the rest of the season, it’s a reason to be hopeful.
If Mason Plumlee can continue to develop into the paint-controlling force he was expected to be—and is already according to NBA scouts—in a month or so this team will look and play completely differently than it has all season.
Regardless though, I think we can all agree on one thing, nothing will ever beat throwing up the big “Z”.
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