President Barack Obama’s popularity in North Carolina in 2008 helped land victories for Democratic congressional candidates across the state. This year, though, Democratic incumbents are facing challenges to defend their posts.
Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell—currently the eighth district’s congressional representative—unseated five-term Republican incumbent Robin Hayes four years ago. One election cycle later, however, Kissell is finding himself on the wrong side of anti-incumbent sentiment, according to Political Science Professor David Rohde, and is facing a strong challenge from Republican candidate Harold Johnson. The most recent poll published by The New York Times shows the two candidates essentially in a dead heat.
Rohde explained that the reason the race has grown so close is because of the Democratic Party’s current national problems.
“Many voters who are unhappy are holding the Democrats responsible for the problems,” he said. “This is true even if they aren’t Republican.”
The Tea Party is also making things difficult for Kissell and the Democratic Party, Rhode said. Although the movement is not officially aligned with the Republican party, its members are largely conservative.
“The Tea Party is definitely a resource for spurring Republican turnout,” Rhode said. “Both nationally and in the state, Republicans are angry and are extremely motivated to vote.”
Eric Heberlig, a resident of the eighth district and political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, said he believes the Tea Party will give Johnson more Republican support in the eighth district.
“I don’t know if the Tea Party movement is that much better organized here in the eighth district than anywhere else,” he said. “But it’s probably undeniable that they will affect the election’s turnout, because the movement reflects the increased national enthusiasm of conservatives.”
A lower turnout of African-American voters would also have a major effect on the race. African-American turnout usually is lower in midterm elections than in presidential elections, he said.
One move frequently debated in the race is Kissell’s vote against the health care bill. Yet Christopher Schuler, the director of communications for Kissell’s campaign, said the vote was the congressman keeping his word.
“A promise that the congressman made to the people of his district [was] that while we do need health reform, he would never vote to cut Medicare,” said Schuler. “Half of Obama’s bill was going to cut Medicare. That’s why he voted against it.”
Nonetheless, many Democratic voters will be “substantially less likely to turn out and vote [in this mid-term election] than in 2008,” Rohde said.
While Kissell continues to try to reassure the eighth district’s Democratic base, Johnson is working on identifying with the district’s residents. A former sportscaster, Johnson worked for a Charlotte sports channel and was known as “the big guy” among locals.
“Johnson’s popular here,” said David Black, chairman of the eighth district’s Republican Party. “Kissell promised to give our district more jobs and he failed.”
Johnson is using his local popularity to run as an outsider against politicians in Washington DC.
“Harold Johnson is a family friend,” said sophomore Jillian Becker, who is also from the eighth district. “He knows a lot of people around Charlotte.”
Although Kissell faces a tough election, his campaign believes he is the best man for the job.
“The congressman’s got a record of standing up for his district,” Schuler said. “He’s been voted one of the most moderate members in Congress. He has no party lines. And most importantly, he’s a former textile worker and school teacher who understands the needs of normal working-class people.”
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