I was convinced when I left campus last May after my junior year that Duke had missed its best opportunity to make a Final Four.
Gerald Henderson had declared for the NBA and megastar recruit John Wall, who head coach Mike Krzyzewski compared to Jason Williams, chose the Bluegrass State over the royal blue uniform. The Blue Devils would have no true point guard and no dominant center.
But a funny thing happened along the way—this year’s senior trifecta of Jon Scheyer, Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas combined to form a sum greater than the individual parts.
Scheyer became one of the most efficient ballhandlers in the country, ranking fifth in the NCAA in assist-to-turnover ratio with just 63 turnovers on the year. Zoubek learned not to commit silly fouls, didn’t travel every time he got position in the post and snared rebounds with authority. Thomas mastered his role as a jack-of-all-trades, effectively defending every position and coming through with the clutch rebound or putback.
Together, these three have merged with the rest of the Duke players to form a Final Four squad that is probably Krzyzewski’s least talented, at least NBA-wise, but has as good a chance as any to win the national title. You could list many good reasons why it could win—its underrated offensive efficiency, its suffocating defense, the pedigree of the coaching staff—but in my view, as someone who’s seen every peak and valley over the past four years, it’s because the seniors finally know how to create the lucky breaks instead of just hoping they happen.
As freshmen, this group experienced two four-game losing streaks, something that hadn’t happened in Durham in 10 years. Duke blew leads against N.C. State and Virginia Commonwealth in the postseason that year, with both games coming down to the final few possessions. The players never blamed those losses on bad luck at the time, but Tuesday, with just one weekend left in his college career, Scheyer acknowledged the hardships from his first year.
“We had four or five games where we lost in overtime or at the end of the game where we caught some bad breaks,” he said. “Beating Duke is a big thing—that’s something you know coming to Duke, but I still had to face that freshman year.”
The talent was certainly there sophomore year to be good—new arrivals Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith added an offensive burst, and the Class of 2010 had nowhere to go but up. But the busts continued in disappointing fashion—in March, a rumored team-wide flu seemed to sap Duke’s energy. Only a miracle coast-to-coast layup by Henderson kept the Blue Devils from being embarrassed by Belmont in the NCAA Tournament’s first round, and that merely staved off the inevitable when West Virginia stomped them in the second half by roughhousing Duke at every opportunity.
Then came junior year, and while the Blue Devils finally seemed to create their own luck with their win against Texas, they didn’t know how to sustain it and bowed out rather unceremoniously against Villanova.
But now, Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas know how to make victories happen on a consistent basis. In previous years, there’s no way this team could break away from a dogged Purdue squad after being knotted up for basically the entire contest. Before this season, there’s no way this team could withstand Baylor’s athleticism and crash the boards as effectively as they did Sunday.
But now, Scheyer always believes he’s going to win, and backs it up with 3-point daggers and a refusal to make mistakes. Zoubek believes it by setting brutal screens on perimeter defenders and drawing critical charges. Thomas believes it by getting position on guys several inches taller and much more athletic to get rebounds an average player his size wouldn’t come close to.
“I’m stronger… for going through those experiences I had as a freshman and a sophomore,” Scheyer said. “Baylor made some runs at us, but I was confident the whole way. I had doubts freshman year, but I’ve been through a lot of games, and just being through it helps you more than anything.”
The result is that the seniors have a chance to exorcise one last demon—a rugged West Virginia foe that dealt them arguably the most physically exhausting and overpowering defeat of their careers.
“Everybody doubting us in my younger years—all that’s in our heads right now,” Zoubek said. “While we believe we don’t have to make up for anything, we want to show everyone how good we are.”
And now, Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas have shown how wrong their classmates were for thinking a Final Four opportunity had passed them by.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.