In its ninth year, the war on terror has had its successes but still has a long way to go.
The Afghan economy is strengthening and the security situation has stabilized since 2001, when the United States invaded the country in the aftermath of 9/11 and overthrew the Taliban government, said Peter Bergen, a CNN national security analyst and senior fellow at the New America Foundation. Iraq, however, is much more violent than Afghanistan and faces a risk of civil war, Bergen noted.
“Terrorism isn’t going to be abolished, al Qaeda will not disappear but we’ve reached the point where they’re a second-order threat and not an issue of national security,” he said during the first Steel Family Lecture at the Sanford Institute Tuesday night, in a speech titled “Obama’s War on al Qaeda and its allies.”
Bergen said one of the greatest accomplishments of the war on terror has been transforming Pakistani public perception of al Qaeda. Pakistanis have become more supportive of the United States’ military actions against al Qaeda, he said.
Al Qaeda has also been hurt by an increase in drone attacks, Bergen said. Last year under President Barack Obama’s administration, U.S. forces conducted 53 drone attacks. During the administration of former President George W. Bush, however, fewer than 40 drone attacks occurred.
The popularity of Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda’s leader, has been decreasing globally and the group’s goals are poorly defined, Bergen said.
“We know what they’re against, but we don’t know what they’re for,” he said.
Still, Bergen said bin Laden’s death would be a major victory for the West because al Qaeda depends on a cult of personality centered on bin Laden.
Bergen also discussed al Qaeda’s relationship with allied terrorist groups.
Among al Qaeda’s allies are other terrorist groups that it has ideologically or directly taught. One of those groups was the Taliban government, which began to behead hostages and use video propaganda, just as al Qaeda had done. These groups all take a long-term view of the fight in which they are engaged.
“It took 200 years to get the Crusaders out of the Middle East,” Bergen said. “That’s the kind of mentality they have.”
Still, Bergen said the Afghan situation is improving. A January BBC poll shows that 70 percent of Afghans are optimistic about the future, up from 40 percent last year.
Bergen added, however, that this is due in part to the country’s past. He noted that Afghans have endured a Soviet invasion, a civil war and the Taliban government over the past 30 years.
He noted that more than 4.7 million Afghan refugees have returned to the country and millions of children, including girls, are now able to go to school.
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