If you ever watch ESPN, read the newspaper or talk to a college basketball fan, you already know the official word on the Duke basketball team: It’s capable of beating any team in the country as long as the players are hitting their shots. Of course, the natural corollary is that it’s near impossible for any team to hit its shots for six straight games to win the NCAA Tournament.
Just look at the lead from the Associated Press game story after Duke beat Boston College Jan. 13: “This time, Duke figured out a way to win without its trusty long-range shot.”
You read this, or you hear something like it, or you see some ESPN analyst diagramming this fact with his telestrator, and you smile and nod because you agree with this little bit of received wisdom. Then you say a little prayer that the Blue Devils hit those shots in the NCAA Tournament because, truly, a deep Tournament run would be sweet. And then you stop thinking about it, because it’s kind of depressing that a deep Tournament run hinges on luck, and because you have a calculus test or something.
But if you continued to think about it, you’d realize how outrageously absurd it is that this is the analysis you get from professionals whose job it is to analyze basketball games.
Of course Duke is capable of beating any team in the country as long as the players are hitting their shots. It’s called basketball. The goal of the game is to put the ball in the basket. If one team is more successful at doing so then the other team, then it is probably going to win.
Obviously, the statistics back this up. According to kenpom.com, effective field goal percentage (we’ll skip the math, but basically eFG% is field goal percentage with a bonus for each 3-pointer made) has the strongest correlation with Duke’s offensive efficiency. Opponents’ eFG% is the factor most strongly correlated with Duke’s defensive efficiency. Stated simply, if Duke shoots well and its opponent shoots not as well, the Blue Devils will score more points and give up fewer points than they would otherwise.
But guess what? This is true for Texas, Kentucky, Villanova, Syracuse, Michigan State, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Kansas State. For those scoring at home, that’s nine of ten teams in this week’s AP top 10. And I bet that if I had a team of research associates to keep going down the list, it would remain true for 90% of teams in the country.
But I don’t have a team of research assistants, and I certainly won’t continue going down the list because I would only reach this obvious conclusion: The two most important things that any basketball team can do are put the ball in the basket and prevent their opponent from doing the same. I might as well tell you that the sky is blue, or that those videos they show in Cameron Indoor Stadium during timeouts featuring DeMarcus Nelson or Gerald Henderson yelling, “Let’s go Blue Devils” are awkward.
Now you’re probably saying, “Okay jerk, now that you’ve basically shot my pet Duke Basketball theory to ribbons, what do you think is the most important thing that the Blue Devils have to do to win?”
And since I’m in charge of what you say, I already have my answer ready: This Duke team is most effective when it gets the ball into the paint. In answer to your next question—“Haven’t you just replaced one basketball cliché with another?”—the answer is, yes, I have, but this cliché is much more descriptive and maybe even slightly counter-intuitive for a team whose three biggest stars play on the perimeter.
When the Blue Devils matriculate the ball into the painted area (Thanks, Bobby Knight!), they become the aggressor on that offensive possession. Their opponents shift to protect the basket—and this is true even when one of Duke’s less offensively gifted big men get the ball around the hoop—and are forced to adjust their positioning. Even if the ultimate outcome of the possession is two or three more passes followed by a long jump shot, the shooter’s rhythm is better and the shot goes in more often. I can’t prove this, but anecdotally, it feels true.
When the ball isn’t going into the paint, Duke’s offense stagnates. The ball goes around the perimeter until the shot clock winds down and someone is forced to take a 3-pointer. Usually, this shot misses. This is what happened all the time last year—never more glaringly than in the Sweet 16 loss to Villanova. The only way last year’s Blue Devils could get the ball into the paint was on a dribble-drive; when opponents shut down that dribble-drive game, Duke had to hit contested shots or it wouldn’t win. But this is a new year.
Take Duke’s comfortable win over Clemson Jan. 3. After the Blue Devils raced out to a 30-12 halftime advantage on the strength of a solid defensive effort, the Tigers went on an 11-0 run to start the second half. The Blue Devils shots during that run were all contested 3-pointers, and all were missed. Head coach Mike Krzyzewski called time out, and Duke came out of the break noticeably more aggressive—the guards were feeding the ball to post players or driving to the basket themselves.
The Blue Devils renewed interest in feeding the post—and especially the added wrinkle of feeding Mason Plumlee or Lance Thomas at the high post—gives this year’s team another way to get the ball into the paint. And—wouldn’t you know it?—Duke’s shots are falling more frequently this year than last; its eFG% is 53.8% versus last year’s 50.5%.
So next time you’re watching the Blue Devils and “the shots just aren’t falling,” think a little harder. Why aren’t they falling? Is Duke attacking on offense? And if you ask these questions and you answer them the same way I do, then you’ll probably also agree with this: Duke is capable of beating any team in the country—as long as it plays attacking, aggressive offensive basketball. And given the right coaching, the right mindset, the right matchups and the right luck, it’s almost easy to envision a team doing that for six straight games.
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