As the calendar inches closer and closer to March, speculation is growing about the Blue Devils' possible draw in the NCAA Tournament, especially with the increasing possibility of Duke earning its first No. 1 seed since 2006. And thanks to college basketball experts like SI.com's Andy Glockner, fans may not even have to wait until Selection Sunday to find out Duke's fate. The columnist puts out a weekly Bracket Watch projecting the tournament seeds every week, as well as a Bubble Watch outlining contending teams' chances of actually making the field of 65. (Plus, his sister Shari Glockner, now Shari Vermeulen, was Duke Class of 1998, so he can't be all that bad, right?) The Chronicle spoke with SI's "Bracketologist" via e-mail recently to see how he projects Duke in the NCAA Tournament, and also to get his take on the ACC season in general thus far.
The Chronicle: You currently have Duke projected as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. What about Duke's resume has impressed you thus far, and what do you see as the team's biggest issue for the committee?
Andy Glockner: The most impressive thing about Duke at this point is their average margin of victory. They're pounding people, which is a very strong indicator of an elite team. Like in baseball, the best teams will have overwhelmingly good records in blowouts. Luck will even itself out over time in close games, although in hoops, if you have certain go-to options or good free throw shooters or whatever, you can bend that a bit in your favor. Their computer measureables, like they are every year, are also very strong. Duke schedules better than almost anyone from that standpoint. The biggest issues right now are that they're 0-2 in true road games and don't have any truly great wins.
TC: Duke hasn't been a No.1 seed in the tournament since 2006. What needs to happen for Duke to break that streak this season? Do you see the Blue Devils as "controlling their own destiny" or needing help from other teams, i.e. some of the Big East contenders?
AG: Some of each. Duke almost certainly would have to win the ACC regular season (which they are the clear favorite to do) and probably win the ACC tournament crown, as a team that wins or finishes second in the Big East and then wins that tournament might have a stronger case for the last No. 1 seed if you assume Kansas, Kentucky and Texas will remain entrenched. I think there's a pretty good shot at that happening, but there's a long way to go.
TC: As much as Duke fans are enjoying the team's success this year, they are enjoying North Carolina's troubles almost as much. Where do you see the Tar Heels being when the season is over? Is there a possibility they may not make the tournament at all?
AG: Carolina ultimately should be OK. It was apparently early in the season that they don't have the guard play necessary to be a top team, but they still have a good amount of talent. Before the upset loss to C of C, they had lost to Texas, Syracuse and Kentucky. Obviously, there's no shame in that. They also beat Michigan State and Ohio State with Evan Turner. I'm not sure why they were so bad this week, but for now I'll trust the bulk of their season's work over a couple of bad outings.
TC: How many teams from the ACC do you see making the tournament, even in what is being described as a "down" year for the conference? With North Carolina struggling, which other ACC teams might merit high seeds?
AG: I have Clemson second in the pecking order this week, but they're only a 5-seed or so. The ACC is filled with decent teams but it lacks the top-end class it normally has. When you look around at the struggles of leagues like the Pac-10 and some of the mids, though, there should be plenty of bids available. Best guess for the ACC is six or maybe seven teams, but it's impossible to say with any certainty this early.
TC: It seems as if the hot topic for college basketball columnists around the country lately has been Jon Scheyer's emergence as an All-American level talent. What has your opinion been on his play thus far this season?
AG: Obviously, he's been very good. He's smart with the ball, is a clever passer and uses his size well. You always feel good for a kid who perseveres and emerges like Scheyer has. I don't think anyone thought he'd be a first-team All-American type player.
TC: Obviously, Duke fans have been disappointed with the team's performance in the NCAA Tournament over the past few seasons. What do you see in this year's team, if anything, that leads you to believe this year might be different?
AG: This team has more size—quality and depth—both in the frontcourt and backcourt than the last couple of versions. This has allowed Duke to employ less ball pressure way out on the perimeter. They had to try the last couple of years to hide their interior. Now they have less of that issue, so they don't extend as much defensively, which in turn helps the interior, if that makes sense. Overall, it's a better defensive team for sure and they rebound well as a group, so they are positioned better to win on a night when the jumpers aren't falling.
TC: Finally, how far do you see Duke advancing in the tournament this year? What needs to happen if the team is going to make its first Final Four since 2004?
AG: Knockout tournaments entail considerable luck, with matchups, injuries, how games unfold, etc. Overall, Duke's numbers at this point suggest an Elite Eight-caliber team, with a range of anywhere between a second-round loss and the Final Four not being shocking. Just looking at this week's bracket on SI.com, they could draw Missouri in Round 2 and then maybe a tough-minded Pitt team that could force Duke into an uncomfortable grind. Get through those and maybe draw Kentucky. It's not easy to make the Final Four, especially when you don't have elite talent. Duke is very good, but the roster still has some limitations.
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