The Academy is on the brink of being overtaken by the Na’vi.
The Golden Globes, which aired this past Sunday, crowned James Cameron’s Avatar Best Picture and bestowed the self-proclaimed king of the world with Best Director as well. Although the ceremony seldom accurately predicts the Oscars, often choosing celebrity over talent (members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have daintily been nicknamed “starf—ers”), the 3-D epic has surged to the front of the race.
A few months ago, critics and fervent Oscar bloggers hesitantly placed Avatar high on their shortlist for Best Picture. Now, with the Oscar nominees to be announced Feb. 2, it’s nearly impossible to navigate anywhere without being surrounded by Pandora fever. Despite the expansion of the BP race from five to 10 films, the winner, sadly, is virtually determined (Duke alum and Entertainment Weekly Oscar guru Dave Karger agrees, tweeting, “I’m not sure anyone can beat Avatar”).
The only hope of a “human” film upstaging Avatar lies in the Iraq drama The Hurt Locker, directed by, interestingly enough, Cameron’s ex-wife, Kathryn Bigelow. The critics’ darling has picked up numerous prizes, but features no bankable names and suffers from lack of exposure. Jason Reitman’s crisp and compelling meditation on today’s economy, Up in the Air, hovers close behind, boasting a relevant narrative and a trio of powerhouse performances. Rounding out the race’s surefire nominees are last year’s Sundance stunner—and in this critic’s opinion, the most powerful film of the year—Precious and Quentin Tarantino’s revenge-giddy Inglourious Basterds.
That makes five worthy films as locks, which brings excitement, but possibly tarnishes the other five slots. Most agree that the academically erotic An Education will slip in, and, if the Academy continues this scholarly trend, so will the Coen brothers’ A Serious Man. The ever-improving sci-fi genre could encroach on the category in the form of the revamped Star Trek or the outstanding South African political allegory District 9. A shoe-in for best animated feature, Up could appear in the top 10, as could Clint Eastwood’s performance-heavy Nelson Mandela drama Invictus. Look for the Academy to steer clear from HFPA favorites The Hangover and Nine, instead—fingers crossed—choosing the refreshing (500) Days of Summer.
The director’s race will mirror the five best picture locks. Bigelow, however, has the chance to beat out her ex. Academy voters might find Cameron’s general arrogance unappealing, or possibly view awarding Bigelow as a way to honor the breakthrough year it was for female directors, including strong works by Lorne Scherfig (An Education) and Jane Campion (Bright Star).
Women represent the last resort for any acting surprise on Oscar night (March 7). With the awards for best actor (Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart), Best Supporting Actress (the breathtaking and unstoppable Mo’Nique in Precious) and Best Supporting Actor (Basterds’ slick and deadly Chritopher Waltz) all but in the hands of their performers, Best Actress is the lone showdown. The heated battle between Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock rose a few degrees when both left with Globes on Sunday. Bullock, who has been riding a serious awards surge for her turn in The Blind Side, has now been pegged as the main competition for the greatest-living-actress. White-hot newcomers Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe have taken a backseat. Bullock could either barrel on like similarly middle-America-beloved Reese Witherspoon did for Walk the Line in 2006 or pay for past flops a la Dreamgirls’ Eddie Murphy in 2007. Remember, Bullock did appear in All About Steve only months ago.
This leaves the writing awards, usually the best indicator of cinematic quality, especially the flexible Original Screenplay category which often sees foreign and indie favorites nominated. Other than Locker, Basterds and Up, look for (500) Days, Pedro Almodovar’s Broken Embraces or recent critics’ favorite The Messenger to slip in. One can only hope Avatar fails to trick the Academy into believing it has narrative originality; we’ve all seen Pochantas Dances with Smurfs & WALL-E.
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