I admit that in this space, I have been pretty harsh on Duke Football.
I told you the Blue Devils had no shot against Kansas and that on the precipice of becoming bowl eligible, the odds of going to the postseason were heavily against Duke.
I always made it a point to tell it like it is, even if it meant basically saying that the Blue Devils were guaranteed to lose. So, for the last time this semester, I’m going to keep it real and tell it like it is.
If David Cutcliffe can get faster defensive players, develop an offensive line whose average weight is over 300 pounds and mold Conner Vernon and Desmond Scott into the backyard athletes that Cutcliffe always craves, Duke won’t just go bowling.
It could easily wind up in a BCS game by the time Vernon and Scott are seniors.
Preposterous? At the moment, yes, but that’s not what I’m getting at.
When you look at the successful programs of the decade—USC and Florida especially—you’ll notice those three things that I just mentioned. If you’re missing even one piece, you’re not going to win your conference.*
*Unless you play in the Big Ten.
Charlie Weis will attest to that. He had as close to an NFL offense as you can get—but his lack of a defense is what ultimately cost him his job.
At this moment, Duke only has the potential offensive game-changers on its roster, and it’s going to require some serious recruiting scores to get the defensive game-changers. But who would’ve thought that just a couple of months into the job, Cutcliffe would convince Sean Renfree, the 10th-best quarterback prospect in the nation according to Scout.com, to come to a school that had won one game in the previous two years?
Now, Duke has actually won nine games in its previous two years, so going to high school seniors and pitching the program isn’t nearly as difficult as it was before. There are definitely some potential studs in the pipeline: Matt Daniels and John Drew, a sophomore and a freshman, respectively, can easily develop into great players on the defensive side of the ball.
The Blue Devils are also trying to sway the interest of four-star defensive tackle John Watson and linebacker Danny Spond, the ninth-ranked middle linebacker in the country according to Scout. Get three or four of those top-tier recruits a class, and boom, you’re suddenly a legitimate conference contender. North Carolina’s defensive recruiting is what got it back to playing in bowls, and since Duke has a better coaching staff than the Tar Heels, the Blue Devils would be even better with a few big-time defensive recruits.
And then… there’s the offensive line. The most criticized (sometimes justifiably so, sometimes not) unit on the team brings in the 40th-ranked offensive lineman in the country, Laken Tomlinson, next season. The most important thing about Tomlinson, though, is his size—he’s 6-foot-5, 285 pounds, which means with just an offseason or two of being in Duke’s strength and conditioning program, he can easily break 300 pounds. I would hope that this is the type of offensive lineman Cutcliffe continues to recruit, because it’s really the only type that can play in a balanced offense.
But perhaps more significant than anything Duke has is on its roster is what the ACC doesn’t—a powerhouse. Gone are the days when it was Florida State at the top and everyone else fighting for second place, and Virginia Tech gave up its perch as the conference’s best this season. Today’s king of the hill is Georgia Tech. Next year, it could be Miami… or North Carolina… or even N.C. State.
The point is, you won’t have a program that reloads instead of rebuilding every year at the pinnacle. Duke’s got the bare fundamentals you need to be a winning program—a smart, flexible head coach and a steady, mistake-free quarterback. But in order to become a championship program, it’s going to have to find a way to upgrade those three elements: defense, athletic difference-makers on offense and a better offensive line.
Hey, it might be a little crazy. But I’m just keeping it real, like I always have. It just so happens this time, the reality is Duke might be a championship squad in a few years.
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