Point-counterpoint: Blue Devil women better than last year?

Lucas Nevola: Yes, younger players will emerge

Even though they lost leading scorer Chante Black, the No. 6 Blue Devils should enjoy more success this year than last.

Firstly, there is the way last season ended. Duke, as a No. 1 seed, went down in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to ninth-seeded Michigan State. The game took place in the Breslin Center, the Spartans’ home court.

That’s right, Duke, the No. 4 team in the nation, had to play its second-round tournament game on the road.  It’s tough to blame the team for that loss, especially given the Spartans’ extra incentive of beating their former coach—Blue Devil head coach Joanne P. McCallie. Michigan State was the worst possible matchup for Duke. Without such bad circumstances, the Blue Devils could have advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond.

This year’s team is similar to last year’s, and in March the first two rounds of the tournament will be played in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke should be able to coast through the first weekend and have a legitimate chance to advance even further.

Additionally, the Blue Devils’ guard play should be improved this season. Jasmine Thomas showed against North Carolina last year that she is ready to take over this team. Her 19 points, eight in overtime, led the way for Duke’s come from behind victory over its rival, and this season Thomas returns as the Blue Devils’ leading scorer. Shay Selby and Karima Christmas remain the two most accurate 3-point shooters from last season. Also, eight of Duke’s nine returning players hit at least one trey last year, and the firepower from long-range could make up for the loss of Black inside.

There is also addition by subtraction.  Everyone loves Abby Waner, and she did a lot of good things for the program, but no one loved the 30-foot 3-pointers grazing the side of the backboard and the no-look passes out of bounds. Without her 33 percent shooting (on 321 shots!) and her 3.32 turnovers a game, the Blue Devils should have better possessions and more productive looks at the hoop.

Krystal Thomas, who replaces Black down low, may not be able to duplicate Black’s scoring, but she should be able to replicate her rebounding and defensive numbers with additional playing time. Thomas played in every game last year, and had the second most blocks on the team in only 11.6 minutes a game.

But even if the Blue Devils have wiped away the memories of last year’s loss to Michigan State, they still have to deal with this squad’s less-than-stellar prospects. 

The greatest challenge facing Duke this year is filling the void left by a hugely productive senior class. The Blue Devils lost three starters from last year’s squad, including ACC Defensive Player of the Year Chante Black. But perhaps more importantly, the Blue Devils will miss the offensive production of that trio. Black and Abby Waner were two of the Blue Devils’ three leading scorers, and Black and Carrem Gay were the team’s top rebounders. Jasmine Thomas is the only returning player who averaged 10 points per game. 

Duke has run an inside-outside attack for the last two years, and without Black and Gay, the points will be hard to come by. Junior Krystal Thomas hasn’t yet demonstrated much offensive consistency—albeit in limited minutes— and senior Joy Cheek regressed after a successful sophomore season, losing her starting spot midway through the year. For a team that prides itself on rebounding and defense, the Blue Devils may not have the personnel to keep that identity. 

Last year, the Blue Devils got a midseason spark through the emergence of then-sophomores Jasmine Thomas and Karima Christmas, who provided solid scoring from the wings and alternated as second options behind Black. It remains to be seen who will step up for Duke this year.  The current sophomore class had minimal impact a year ago, as the three rode the pine for the bulk of conference play and the postseason.

The Blue Devils are also suffering from a slew of injuries. Guards Shay Selby and Keturah Jackson both sat out in the team’s Blue-White scrimmage, and without Waner, a primary ballhandler last year, Duke needs its guards healthy. 

The team has struggled with turnovers each of the past two seasons, and that could continue. Jasmine Thomas split the point with Waner last year, but head coach Joanne P. McCallie said Thomas will be playing more off the ball. That leaves the responsibility of bringing the ball up on Christmas and Mitchell, neither of whom are natural floor leaders.

Duke will likely have a chip on its shoulder after being the earliest No. 1 seed to lose in the Tournament, but a tough schedule will do the Blue Devils no favors. Duke has to face the likes of Connecticut, Ohio State and Stanford—the Cardinal on the road— in addition to the usual ACC grind. The goal is always to peak in March, but early-season struggles could send the Blue Devils spiraling downward.

Duke is still one of the premier programs in the country. But with a collection of unproven players, don’t expect the Blue Devils to be as dominant as they were in 2008-2009.