As of right now, Duke’s record stands at 5-3, 3-1 in the ACC with just two wins needed to become bowl-eligible.
But the only record that matters to me and other compulsive gamblers is 4-1-1—the Blue Devils’ record against the spread. No matter how you look at it, Duke has performed up to head coach David Cutcliffe’s expectations and basically no one else’s.
Right now, North Carolina is a 10-point favorite against Duke in Saturday’s critical game for both teams. Unfortunately, this is the only thing Las Vegas has laid odds on with respects to Duke Football—and I can’t really say I blame them. After all, the program’s resurgence is only now starting to become a story worth paying attention to three time zones over.
So to make up for the bookies’ ignorance of Cutcliffe’s squad, I’m going to lay the odds out for the ways the season could end.
• Scenario One: Duke goes undefeated in its remaining four games, beats whoever comes out of the Atlantic Division and faces Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.
Odds: 19-to-1
Why: As hot as the Blue Devils have gotten, it’s important to realize that their conference wins have come against N.C. State, Maryland and Virginia. The Wolfpack and Terrapins are the cellar dwellers of the terrible Atlantic Division and the Cavaliers were picked to finish fifth in the Coastal Division preseason. The schedule heats up in the next four weeks with the Tar Heels, No. 10 Georgia Tech, nationally ranked Miami and long-time tormenter Wake Forest. It could happen, but Duke will need to play as close to perfect as possible and still get some breaks.
• Scenario Two: Duke wins three of its remaining four games and plays in either the Champ Sports or Music City Bowl.
Odds: 9-to-1
Why: This is still not likely to happen, but it’s definitely more feasible than running the table. North Carolina and Wake Forest are beatable opponents, but they are head and shoulders better than N.C. Central or even Virginia. Assuming the Blue Devils grab those two games, if there’s an upset waiting to happen, it’s when Duke plays Georgia Tech. Despite last year’s 27-0 score, the Blue Devils actually handled the option attack relatively well for about three quarters. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets’ pass defense is ranked last in the conference, which plays right into Duke’s offensive philosophy. This scenario, while not the most likely overall, is the most realistic of the wishful-thinking (naïve?) crowd.
• Scenario Three: Duke wins two games and ekes into a bowl, probably the Meineke Car Care or GMAC Bowl.
Odds: 3-to-1
Why: If Duke is as good as Cutcliffe thinks it is, then his bowl prediction at the beginning of the year comes true. The Blue Devils beat the Demon Deacons (which they’ve been due to do for about three years), scrape by an improving Tar Heels team and then get beaten by the two better squads, Georgia Tech and Miami. Aside from the Richmond and N.C. State games, Duke has mostly played as expected this year—it’s beaten the teams it is better than and lost to the teams better than it. Should the Blue Devils stay the course with a little extra energy against North Carolina, this could easily come true.
• Scenario Four: Duke does not win two games and finishes out of the postseason for the 15th straight year.
Odds: 2-to-3
Why: I’m convinced after watching both squads play this past weekend that the Duke-North Carolina game is a coin flip at best. Chances are good the Blue Devils aren’t good enough to beat Georgia Tech and Miami but have more than enough firepower to defeat Wake Forest. So, if the Blue Devils beat the Tar Heels, they probably go to a bowl; if they don’t, then they stay home. Take heads or tails, because that’s your best chance of accurately picking this weekend’s game—not to mention Duke’s bowl prospects.
The North Carolina game also has heavy implications for the rest of the season—beating their rivals for just the second time in 20 games could give the Blue Devils all the confidence and momentum necessary to pull an upset (or even two) and play in a bowl game that might actually sell out.
As for me? I’m taking Duke to cover the spread Saturday—but whether the Blue Devils can claim the actual win will tell fans a lot about whether they should take the odds on Duke making a bowl game.
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