Technically, Duke’s Homecoming matchup with N.C. Central Saturday is meaningless.
In reality, it’s a must-win.
The (Raleigh) News and Observer reported two weeks ago that the NCAA does not yet consider the Eagles a full-fledged FCS team, so a win this weekend would do nothing to help the Blue Devils’ bowl aspirations. Duke would still need to win five of its final eight contests to qualify for its first postseason game since the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl.
But the N.C. Central game could set the tone for the remainder of the Blue Devils’ season.
If Duke has any chance of fulfilling its goal of playing in December, it needs to build some serious momentum against the Eagles. After rebounding from a disappointing opening week with a much-improved effort at Army, the Blue Devils fell flat last weekend against Kansas, losing 44-16.
Part of that, as head coach David Cutcliffe pointed out after the game, has to do with the Jayhawks. Their offense is going to make a lot of their opponents look worse than they really are. But after an opening two-play, 87-yard touchdown drive, Duke failed to get much going against Kansas’ defense, and it was only a matter of time before Todd Reesing and the Jayhawk offense got on track.
By the end of the first half, Kansas had started to pull away, and the Blue Devils had lost their chance to make a statement on sort-of national TV. (Can you really count Versus as national TV if at one point a graphic refers to the sideline reporter as “Third Guy,” and later, the play-by-play announcer doesn’t even attempt to say cornerback Chris Rwabukamba’s name after he defends a pass? Let’s be like the NCAA and say the station is still transitioning from its days as OLN.)
Now, with just one nonconference win counting toward bowl eligibility, Duke has to get five wins out of its ACC schedule. It is unlikely any of those will come from matchups with Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. Miami is looking as if it has returned to national-power status, Georgia Tech proved last year that its triple-option offense can tear through the Blue Devil defense and Virginia Tech is Virginia Tech.
That leaves five potentially winnable games on Duke’s schedule: N.C. State, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and Wake Forest. (The Tar Heels are ranked, but they don’t scare me as much as the Yellow Jackets—the Blue Devils always seem to play their archrivals tough.) Duke would have to win all five of those games to qualify for a bowl—a daunting task, considering it is 1-for-3 in winnable games so far.
With the Hokies coming up Oct. 3, the Blue Devils aren’t good enough to just turn on the switch when it matters, Oct. 10 against the Wolfpack. Duke, despite all the progress it has made since the Ted Roof Era, is still in the early phase of the rebuilding process. If the Blue Devils have any chance of making a bowl game, they have to do all the little things right.
Just as importantly, they cannot afford extended losing streaks because they are not far enough removed from the days of 0-12 and 1-11. Many players did not win their first home game until last season, and most of them have suffered devastating losses to North Carolina and Wake Forest in their careers. Duke is not at the point where it can overcome several consecutive ugly weeks with a key victory.
That’s why the first-ever meeting between Durham’s schools is so critical. With Virginia Tech looming, the Blue Devils need to build momentum this weekend. As the NCAA realizes, N.C. Central will not truly provide Division I-level competition. The Eagles have scored just 44 points this season, including 10 in a double-overtime loss to Morehead State Saturday. They have completed less than 53 percent of their passes and average 3.1 yards per carry on the ground.
The Blue Devils should be favored, and they have to win—and do so convincingly. If they don’t, the season won’t be lost by any means. Duke may still match or exceed last season’s win total.
But expectations for the program have changed. The Blue Devils are no longer measured by whether they win one game per season. They may not be a bowl team yet, but Cutcliffe insists that they should compete for a bid.
If they struggle against N.C. Central, that is out of the question. They will not follow that with a 5-for-5 performance in the games they have to win. But if Duke blows out the Eagles, anything is possible in those contests.
For a meaningless game, there’s certainly a lot at stake.
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