If there’s ever been a time for Duke to play like David Cutcliffe says it practices, it’s got to be this weekend against No. 22 Kansas.
Because it’s not just that the Blue Devils have struggled to form any semblance of a running game or successfully kick a field goal this season. It’s not just that Duke hasn’t won a game against a ranked opponent since 1994 and, even more mind-blowing, hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent on the road in nearly 40 years.
It’s that everything Kansas does well, Duke will have a hard time countering.
Consider first the Jayhawks’ offense. Led by senior dual-threat quarterback Todd Reesing, the Kansas attack has averaged nearly six touchdowns a game and is well-balanced, having scored six times on the ground and three through the air. Perhaps the scariest thing is Kansas head coach Mark Mangino said his team left points on the scoreboard in its 34-7 win over UTEP Saturday.
Duke has yet to face a legitimate passing threat, and while Leon Wright’s two pick-sixes were definitely Sportscenter-worthy (Cutcliffe himself said he has never seen a player at any level have back-to-back interceptions for touchdowns), it came against a team that would never throw the ball if it didn’t have to.
Cutcliffe said at his weekly press conference Tuesday Kansas will serve as a litmus test for his young, thin secondary to see how good it will be this season. Really, Duke’s defensive backfield could consist entirely of All-ACC performers and I’m not sure it could stop Kansas. Reesing and the rest of the offensive corps are simply that good.
On the other side of the ball, Cutcliffe listed a couple of key points his offense needs to address to have a chance against Kansas.
“How do you beat one of the top 15 teams in the country?” Cutcliffe said. “Take care of the ball, do well in the kicking game and make big plays as the game progresses.... You’ve got to possess the ball and keep your defense off the field.”
As soon as I heard him say that, I immediately felt Kansas would have the contest wrapped up before Duke’s plane even landed in Lawrence—at least on paper.
For Duke to take care of the ball and keep its defense off the field, a running game has to exist. If it doesn’t, the Blue Devils’ downfield passing options will disappear, and the chance of a turnover will drastically increase.
But has anything in the first two games suggested that the running game is going to suddenly break out against a nationally-ranked team? The answer is no.
Duke’s net rushing average thus far is 1.9 yards per carry. Kansas is allowing a mere 39 yards per game. Those statistics simply suggest that Duke has no shot of winning Saturday because nothing will open up.
Having said that, though, give credit to Cutcliffe for not getting too caught up in the numbers. As a former coach at Ole Miss and in the SEC, he said he knows how meaningless numbers are early in the season.
“We’ve had a couple of games in years past where we were averaging 580 yards a game and then we go to Gainesville [to play Florida] and it abruptly changed,” Cutcliffe said. “You have to get the reality of what you see.”
The reality for Duke is, the Blue Devils can’t get caught up in scoreboard watching—Kansas is going to score touchdowns.
Instead, linebacker Vincent Rey said, the team needs to just focus on making the right play at the right time.
“We’re not worried about the scoreboard—the coaches always say it’s [the booth’s] job to take care of that,” Rey said. “Our main thing is to play good Duke football.”
The rest of the team would be wise to listen to Rey’s words. About the only edge Duke can gain is on the mental side, by taking each play as an individual moment and not the lump sum of the previous three or four touchdowns or defensive stops.
If it can do that, then Duke will play like the bowl-worthy team Cutcliffe insists it is.
But otherwise, what’s on paper will translate to results on the field—and that’s a nightmare Duke certainly shouldn’t want to experience.
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