Head coach David Cutcliffe said it, and he says he really means it: "I believe we will be a bowl team."
To make a bowl game a possibility, Duke must go .500 in its 12-game season. However, this year, there's a catch: Duke has two FCS opponents-Richmond and N.C. Central-but only one can count toward the six-win requirement.
Winning five games against FBS opponents will be no easy feat, as Duke faces a tough nonconference and ACC schedule in 2009.
"Look at our schedule, and they all could be challenging, but there's nobody on there that we're going to forfeit to," Cutcliffe said. "We feel like we can play with anybody if we play well."
Duke may be able to play with all of its opponents, but some wins are clearly more attainable than others. With a bowl berth in mind, a breakdown of the Blue Devils' key matchups (Duke home games in caps):
The FCS Teams:
RICHMOND (September 5) and N.C. CENTRAL (September 26)
The Spiders and the Eagles are expected to be the easiest of the Blue Devils' opponents. Only one of the two potential wins against these FCS teams would count toward bowl eligibility, but for a program looking to rebuild, it's crucial to amass as many wins as possible.
For now, Cutcliffe isn't looking any further than his first opponent.
"I don't get deeply into a schedule, and the thing that is dead in front of us now-and the only thing that stands out-is a Richmond team that knows how to win," Cutcliffe said.
The Spiders won the FCS national title last season, downing reigning champion Appalacian State in the quarterfinals and Montana in the title game.
The Key Out-of-Conference Opponent:
Army (September 12)
Last year, the Black Knights went just 3-9 and finished the season with 30-3 and 34-0 losses against Rutgers and Navy, respectively. Vast improvement seems unlikely under first-year coach Rich Ellerson.
With a win, the Blue Devils could potentially begin the season 2-0. The game is on the road, but if the upset of Vanderbilt last year proved anything, it's that road games are an obstacle the Blue Devils can overcome.
Crucial ACC Games:
1. MARYLAND (October 24)
Assuming that Duke enters the ACC season with two wins that can count toward the six-game total, the team will need four conference wins in order to make a bowl.
In that sense, Maryland could turn out to be the make-or-break game of the season. A win would put Duke on track to make a bowl game and leave the Blue Devils with five games to win three. It would also be the start of a crucial stretch of challenging but beatable opponents in Virginia and North Carolina.
Cutcliffe likes the game's timing, too. Duke has its only off-week of the season right before facing the Terrapins, giving his team more time to prepare.
"It lays out a little better for us," he said. "If you're going to have one open date, you like where it falls, right in the middle, six and six."
2. Virginia (October 31)
The Blue Devils make the trip up to Charlottesville for a Halloweeen match-up. Virginia is coming off a disappointing season last year in which it failed to make a bowl game. If the Cavaliers can find a consistent option at quarterback-they currently have three players in the mix for the starting spot-they may prove to be a diffcult team for Duke. The Blue Devils, though, dominated Virginia in a 31-3 win in Durham last year.
3. North Carolina (November 7)
The Tar Heels are a top-25 team and may serve as a major roadblock for the Blue Devils. North Carolina made a bowl game for the first time in four years under head coach Butch Davis last season and shows no signs of taking a step back.
4. WAKE FOREST (November 28)
Duke has just five wins over the past three seasons, with four of those wins coming last season under Cutcliffe. But if the Blue Devils could finish games against Wake Forest, that number could have been eight. Duke has lost its last three matchups with the Demon Deacons by a total of nine points.
The Blue Devils have come up short before, but if the game means becoming bowl eligible, can they finally win a game when it counts?
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