For a program that had only taken baby steps of progress in efforts to escape the ACC cellar, the Blue Devils' 4-8 record in 2008 under new head coach David Cutcliffe qualifies as a Usain Bolt-sized stride toward a bowl berth.
With fourth-year starting quarterback Thaddeus Lewis guiding the offense and potential first-day NFL Draft candidate Vince Oghobaase anchoring the defense, it would be easy to think that the Blue Devils could be on the brink of going bowling in December for the first time since 1994.
But as great as that would be, it's not going to happen.
With two FCS teams on the schedule, seven wins are needed for Duke to become bowl-eligible. Inexperience on the offensive line and across the defense, coupled with the loss of major contributors Mike Tauiliili at linebacker and wideout Eron Riley to graduation, make a repeat performance of 4-8 the most likely outcome this year.
Lewis has solidified his position as arguably the top passer in the ACC after three years worth of starts, but he'll sorely miss the security blanket of Riley in 2009. Riley was Lewis' primary target during each of his first three years in terms of receiving yardage.
And in addition to losing his go-to wideout, Lewis will be only as good as the protection he gets from his offensive line. With guard Rob Schirmann and tackles Cameron Goldberg and Fred Roland gone due to graduation, Duke's offensive line ranks 116th out of 120 FBS teams in terms of aggregate career starts with 25.
Just as the offensive line will play a crucial role in Lewis' success, it will have to excel to help Duke's stable of running backs succeed. With fifth-year senior Re'quan Boyette healthy and freshman star Desmond Scott in the fold, the Blue Devil backfield has as much talent as it's had in a long time. But the offensive line will need to play above what its lack of experience would suggest to open holes for Duke's backs this year.
On the defensive side of the ball, youth is again the Blue Devils' Achilles heel, with only five starters returning. Although standouts like linebacker Vincent Rey and Oghobaase have proven themselves before, young players will have to step up in the secondary, where expected starting safety Zack Asack was booted off the team over the summer. And at linebacker, Tauiliili must be replaced after an All-American season.
As much as a schedule with not one, but two FCS schools sounds like a breeze, the opener against Richmond will bring last year's FCS national champion to Wallace Wade Stadium. It only takes a quick highlight of Appalachian State knocking off Michigan in 2007 or a more nightmarish glimpse back at Richmond's 13-0 whitewashing of Duke in the 2006 season opener to realize that even the Spiders can't be chalked up as a win.
Still, Duke should pull through its nonconference schedule with a 3-1 record with wins over Richmond, Army and N.C. Central.
Sounds similar to last year's quick start?
It should, and with such an inexperienced group unlikely to pull out more than one win in the ACC, a 4-8 finish will leave Duke fans with a nasty feeling of déj
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