UPDATE: It may already be the 12th day of March, but college basketball fans can mark this as the date when March Madness truly began.
In one day, the top two seeds in the Big 12 were knocked out in Oklahoma City: following Baylor's upset of Kansas early this afternoon, Oklahoma State took down Oklahoma in the final seconds tonight. While Oklahoma seemed like a lock for a No.1 seed a few weeks ago, the Sooners have now lost four of their last six games. Even before this loss, Oklahoma had been relegated to a No. 2 seed by Glockner and Lunardi, and their fate now appears to be sealed. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, should feel much more comfortable about their at-large chances on Selection Sunday after the victory.
More shocking than either Big 12 upset, however, is West Virginia's dismantling of Pittsburgh. The Mountaineer's use of the 1-3-1 zone that became their staple under previous Head Coach John Beilein seemed to confuse the Panthers, and they could not maintain the momentum they earned following their upset of Connecticut last Saturday. However, this upset doesn't appear to have as much impact as those in the Big 12: West Virginia already had a solid case for an at-large bid, and Pittsburgh already had a very solid case for a No.1 seed, especially after completing the season sweep of Connecticut.
The big winner amidst this chaos appears to be Louisville. After handling their business against Providence, the Cardinals appear to have laid a solid claim to a No. 1 seed with Oklahoma out of the picture and Pittsburgh's early tournament exit. It will be hard for the selection committee to justify placing either of those schools ahead of Louisville given these upsets, especially considering the oft-forgotten fact that Louisville was the regular season champion in the juggernaut Big East conference.
What does this mean for Duke? Well, in this aspiring Bracketologist's opinion, not too much. It appears unlikely that Oklahoma's loss will drop them to a No. 3 seed based on their overall body of work, and thus this upset lacks the immediate impact of Kansas' loss. Pittsburgh's loss has a similar affect, or lack thereof, for Duke.
The one exception here might be if Duke can win the ACC Tournament, especially if it beats North Carolina in the process. Such a performance would certainly guarantee the Blue Devils a No. 2 seed; furthermore, winning arguably the toughest conference in the NCAA (a debate that has raged all year between the ACC and the Big East, with Coach K even putting in his two cents) could give Duke an argument for a No. 1 seed after Pittsburgh's early exit.
What do you think, Duke fans? Can Duke make a solid run in the ACC tournament to make these upsets worthwhile? What seed do you think they'll end up with? And, most importantly, how wrong am I in my first attempt at "Bracketology?"
Amidst the first full day of conference tournament action, one early game stands out: Baylor's 71-64 upset of Kansas, the Big-12 regular season champion. While the win was a huge boost for Baylor's bubble hopes, and also for the rest of the Big-12 contenders, it could have farther reaching affects in terms of NCAA tournament seedings, especially for Duke.
Most so-called "Bracketologists" have slated Duke as either a No. 2 seed (see Andy Glockner on SI.com) or a No. 3 seed (see Joe Lunardi on ESPN.com). Meanwhile, Kansas was a No. 3 in Glockner's bracket, while it was a No. 2 in Lunardi's. What does that signify? Well, according to these writers, it looks as if Duke's major competition for a No. 2 seed was the Jayhawks, and with Kansas' early exit today, it looks as if that roadblock is gone-just ask SI.com's Luke Winn.
But Blue Devil fans shouldn't start organizing their rides to Greensboro for the NCAA Tournament's first round just yet, as Wake Forest (a No. 3 in both predictions cited above) could once again throw a wrench in Duke's plans. If the Demon Deacons advance past the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament, particularly if they can defeat Duke head-to-head in a likely semifinal matchup, then Wake might just grab that final No. 2, and send Duke to a less-comfortable opening-round venue.
So while the Cameron Crazies may be buzzing about a possible rematch with North Carolina in the ACC Championship, it may in fact be a showdown with another inner-state rival that could prove more important for the Blue Devils' NCAA tournament hopes.
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