THE CONTENTS: No. 7 Duke hosts--last time we get to use that subject/predicate construction this season--No. 24 Florida State at 8 p.m. at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Senior Night. You can see the game on Raycom (which translates to WRAL or CBS) and hear it on 620 AM.
THE EXPOSITION: The Blue Devils (24-5, 10-4) have emerged from a rough stretch by winning their last four contests, including three on the road. Sunday's win at Virginia Tech was the toughest of those road wins, as Duke held off a furious A.D. Vassallo-fueled rally with crisp execution down the stretch to leave Blacksburg with a 72-65 win.
The Seminoles (22-7, 9-5) are coming off a big win themselves, a 73-66 home victory that ensured a season sweep of Clemson. That gives FSU a step up in the race for the last first-round bye in the ACC Tournament, as it currently sits in a third-place tie with Wake Forest.
Duke defeated Florida State 66-58 January 10. You may remember the game for its scintillating 19-14 halftime score. The Seminoles have given the Blue Devils trouble the last four seasons, taking two of five contests. One of those wins was a one-point victory at Cameron in 2007, while one of the losses was was a one-point overtime defeat at Cameron in 2006.
THE PROTAGONISTS: Duke enters this contest playing some of its best ball of the season--if not quite as good as mid-to-late January. Gerald Henderson has certainly taken his game to the next level (as he will probably be doing after the season as well) while Jon Scheyer is back on track and Kyle Singler was back asserting himself Sunday in Blacksburg.
It will be interesting to see how the Blue Devils' new lineup matches up with Florida State. Toney Douglas is one of the nation's best on-the-ball defenders (he's the best I've seen this year), and he helped wreak havoc in the backcourt in that first meeting, constantly knocking the ball out of Nolan Smith and Greg Paulus' hands. If he did that to Duke's true point guards, how effective can he be on Scheyer? Will the Blue Devils respond by having Henderson or Elliot Williams bring the ball up, and how does that affect Duke's offensive rhythm?
The Blue Devils are again at a height disadvantage, but I expect them to do what they did against Wake Forest: push pace. That's the best way to negate FSU's height and Douglas' defense on the perimeter.
THE ANTAGONISTS: It's all about Douglas on both ends of the floor for FSU. He leads the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game, and nobody else is in double figures. Even in a loaded year for ACC backcourts, he's almost certain to be a 1st-team All-ACC performer.
The Seminoles' four other starters are balanced in scoring, all averaging between eight and nine points per contest. Freshman Chris Singleton has the most potential but the rawest game right now, while Uche Echefu is a big man that can shoot and Solomon Alabi is a big man who can't, but gets his points inside. Since the first meeting, Derwin Kitchen has taken over the point guard spot and helped relieve some of the pressure on Douglas.
FSU's offense looked pathetic at times in the first matchup, but it's certainly improved since then. At the same time, its defense--aided by Douglas and the team's overall length--is arguably the best in the conference.
THE CONFLICT(S): How do Duke's "point" guards handle one of the best ball pressurers in the nation in Toney Douglas? And if the Blue Devils run, can FSU win a track meet?
WHAT THE LOCAL MEDIA ARE SAYING: From Ken Tysiac of the N&O and Charlotte Observer:
Paulus’ jersey won’t hang from the rafters in Cameron, but he has scored more than 1,100 points in his career. And the true measure of his value to the team can’t be measured in statistics.Duke has been fortunate to have him.
WHAT THE MOST IMPORTANT MEMBER OF THE MEDIA IS SAYING: From, well, me:
It's nights like tonight that remind us that a lot can happen in four years.And nobody at Duke knows that better than Paulus, for, with apologies to Dave McClure and Marty Pocius, the story of the Duke Basketball Class of 2009 is the undulating narrative of its point guard.
TIM'S FAVORITE MEMORY OF GREG PAULUS IS...: Two pretty diametric reference points in the point guard's career come to mind:
1) His second career start, at the Garden, against No. 11 Memphis (who would earn a No. 1 seed that year), in which Paulus had eight assists and spoon-fed Shelden Williams all night for the Landlord's 30 points in a three-point win.
2) One of his few starts this year, at Cameron, against Miami, when he helped an emotionally fragile Blue Devils' team come back against the Hurricanes. His steal and dish for a layup before getting elbowed for an intentional foul brought the house down.
TIM'S WORST FAVORITE MEMORY OF GREG PAULUS IS...: There's that home game against Virginia Tech his sophomore season when he basically played the worst game a point guard can play. And there's the time this year when he tried to block Dwayne Collins. Not an Academic All-ACC decision.
BEST MEMORY OF DAVID MCCLURE: About as easy a question as it gets.
WHAT MADE THAT EVEN BETTER?: "Hi, I'm Dave McClure. You may remember me from such buzzer-beating shots as last night's!"
BEST MARTY POCIUS MEMORY: I initially went with both the first time the Cameron crowd chanted "Marty doesn't foul" and his long-forgotten 5-for-5, 14-point performance in the ACC Tournament loss to N.C. State two years ago.
But then I remembered Sean McDonough's brilliant line regarding Pocius' missing middle finger on his left hand: "That means he can't drive in Boston."
BEST GERALD HENDERSON MEMORY: Can I just take January on? The Wake Forest game in particular sticks out, because all season I've been saying Henderson is the kind of guy who can break out and score 40+ points in a game. And he almost did that in the season's biggest game thus far.
WAIT...G'S JUST A JUNIOR!: Well, let's just say I'd be very surprised if this isn't his last game in Cameron.
WHAT WILL THE BLUE DEVILS' STARTING LINEUP LOOK LIKE?: It's been two years since Krzyzewski had to alter his starting lineup to appease a senior on Senior Night; that was for Joe Pagliuca to notch 2-3 minutes against Maryland. This time around, starting Paulus and McClure shouldn't be too much of an issue: They'll simply fill in for Elliot Williams and Lance Thomas. But who does Pocius replace? Wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't even earn the starting nod considering he's bypassing that last year of eligibility.
THE OVER/UNDER ON COMBINED MINUTES FOR PAULUS AND POCIUS IS...?: Based on the iffy starting status of Marty and Paulus' horrendous performance the last time against the Seminoles, an even 16.
FLORIDA STATE'S BUBBLE STATUS IS...: For once, it's March and we don't need to hear talk of the 'Noles on the bubble. With nine conference wins under its belt, FSU is in for the first time since 1998, when it upset fifth-seeded TCU before bowing out to No. 13 Valparaiso in the second round.
THE DENOUEMENT: The first meeting between these two teams was kind of really ugly--a defensive struggle between squads that hadn't discovered their offensive identity yet. Remember, that was the game that sparked Henderson's offensive ascension this conference season. Tonight, while these are still two of the best defensive teams in the ACC, I expect to see a much faster-paced game. Duke will try to run as it did against Wake Forest to make Florida State go smaller and to neutralize Douglas on the perimeter. I don't think the Seminoles can win a track meet with the Blue Devils because, as good as Douglas is, he's not the kind of player that's going to take over a game for stretches like Henderson or even guys like Jeff Teague and Jack McClinton.
I think Greg Paulus hits a big three, Dave McClure does what he always does (occasionally guarding Douglas) and Marty Pocius takes at least one questionable shot from beyond the arc (and I really hope he makes it).
There will be anxious moments, but Duke's newfound late-game offensive execution, which may just amount to "Get the ball to G and get out of his way," will come through again when it's needed. The Blue Devils finally notch a win on Senior Night.
THE VERDICT: Duke, 79-71.
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