The Chronicle talked for a few minutes on the phone with Seth Davis Wednesday afternoon. Davis writes for SI.com and is a studio analyst for CBS Sports. Plus, he's a Chronicle alumnus.
What are some of the keys for Duke to win tonight?
I think it's a more important game for Duke than North Carolina given the way they've played the last two or three games.... I've always felt that the most important positions on the floor are point guard and center, and at both positions, the guys who started the season for Duke are basically not really playing right now, and that's not a good thing. So I think they need to get those two positions straight. I think the fact that they're not making shots is troublesome, but a lot more fixable.
What about North Carolina, what do they need to do to win?
They're going to have to play well. They can expect Duke to fight. It's going to be very hard to run away from Duke. Carolina's got to handle Duke's defense, first of all. They can be a little bit sloppy with the ball. I think Carolina's gotta make shots. Like any outside shooting team, you go through hot and cold spells. Wayne Ellington's been on fire the last six or seven games, but it's not hard to imagine him going 3-for-14 tonight. It's very vital for Carolina to make outside shots. As good as Tyler Hansbrough is, I think he can be contained. I don't know if he can be contained by Dave McClure, but I think he can be contained.
But what does contained mean for Hansbrough? Is that 20 and 10, or 15 and 6?
If Hansbrough does get 20, Carolina's probably going to win. They can't let him go nuts, which he's capable of doing.... If you're defending Carolina, you gotta pick one or another. You gotta worry about outside shooting or say Hansbrough's going to get his, but we can't let Ellington get 30. Or you doubleteam Hansbrough and let Carolina beat you with outside shots. The problem is, you also have to stop them from dribble penetrating and you can't turn the ball over, since they're so good in transition. Duke is operating on a lesser margin of error than Carolina.
Even though Greg Paulus is starting tonight, could you see Nolan Smith, say, closing the game?
I think that would be the ideal scenario. If they have Nolan Smith on the court with two minutes to play, I think that'll be a really good sign for Duke. This is exactly the scenario they hoped to avoid by starting Smith in the first place, to not have to wory about whether Paulus can stop Lawson, because we all know that's a bad matchup for Duke. It's hard, though, because Smith has been exposed as a ballhandler. He's just not a good ballhandler.... When you turn it over against teams like [Clemson], it's like throwing interceptions for touchdowns.
Moving to another matchup, Gerald Henderson and Wayne Ellington have been playing as well as anyone in the ACC, but is it fair to say they've been as good as anyone in the country in the last month?
Absolutely fair. Two really, really good players. Henderson is capable of doing more things to help his team win. He is probably a little bit more of a dangerous player. But if Ellington is really hot from outside... and he doesn't have to score a lot of points necessarily, but he's gotta knock down when he has open shots, because again, that means you can't sag down as much. Ellington, for me, is the X-factor. If he's on his game and is making shots the way he's been making shots, Carolina will be awfully tough to beat.
Someone asked me this last night, so I'll pass it along to you: Is Duke a championship-caliber team right now?
I think Duke is one of the few teams that should be considered among the favorites to win the championship. To say they're a championship-caliber team right now--it's a little bit harder to make that stretch, because they're not playing well right now. The pieces are there. Most teams don't have the pieces. Let's remember, they've only lost three games. But they've also, the last two years, gone into a pretty bad swoon right around this same time. The train's coming in on time. I thought this year would be different because of Zoubek and their experience and maturity, but again, Zoubek has been a non-factor. Right now, I wouldn't call them a championship-caliber team, but I would put them on a very short list of teams that are capable of winning it all.
What's happened to Zoubek in the second part of the season?
I don't know about cause and effect, but I think the Georgetown game appeared to change things for Zoubek. He basically didn't play because they thought, it's not a great matchup to have him defend Monroe 19 feet from the basket. But he hasn't come back since then. He played very well when they drilled Xavier. Zoubek is not going to make anyone forget about George Mikan. He isn't a great player, but he doesn't have to be a greatp layer for Duke to be a great team. He has to be serviceable. He's played well before, so if he's played well before, there's no reason he can' t play well again.
So what's your official prediction?
North Carolina, 88-80. The caveat is, it seems in this rivalry, when there's something that's obviously going to happen, the opposite happens. It almost goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway--my prediction means nothing.
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