Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Courtesy LA Times

Here is the third entry in our ongoing analysis of the most coveted categories in the Academy Awards. For more posts, check here. Today, the category is Best Original Screenplay.

The Nominees:

Frozen River (Courtney Hunt)

Two years running, the Original Screenplay award has gone to first time screenwriters (2007 - Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine and 2008 - Diablo Cody, Juno), which bodes well for Hunt and her inaugural effort. However, those movies were also both lightning rods for buzz around this time last year, and nobody's really talking about Frozen River, despite Melissa Leo's nomination for Best Actress in a Leading Role—a two-horse race between Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep, and maybe dark horse Anne Hathaway. However, if the past is any indication, don't count out Frozen River; it has received a solid amount of awards and critical recognition so far. Just don't put any money on it, either.

Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)

Leigh has something that none of the other live-action writing nominees have: previous nominations. This is his fourth nom for Original Screenplay since 1996's Secrets & Lies , and he's also been nominated twice for Best Director, but has no Oscars to his credit. It seems unlikely that the Academy feels it owes Leigh anything, however, and most of Happy-Go-Lucky's press has revolved around the effervescent lead Sally Hawkins. The saving grace here is that Hawkins was surprisingly not nominated for Best Actress, despite the abundant goodwill regarding her performance (thanks, Angelina Jolie!), and this could be a boon for Leigh—he and Hawkins created the character together. Probably the strongest dark horse in the Original Screenplay race.

In Bruges (Martin McDonagh)

Also a first-time full-length film writer and director, McDonagh's Colin Farrel-starring goofball caper picked up a head of steam upon obtaining Golden Globe nominations for Best Picture - Musical or Comedy and Best Supporting Actor - Musical or Comedy for both Farrel and Brendan Gleeson. Even with such good vibes, McDonagh's a long shot. The only previous award the script has received is the British Independent Film Award's Best Screenplay honor, and domestic fanfare over the film is still subdued. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

Milk (Dustin Lance Black)

The clear frontrunner in the race so far. Milk's first trailer made a point of mentioning "written by Dustin Lance Black" as prominently as it did "directed by Gus Van Sant", which lends credence to the idea that Black was as much an asset to the film as its famed director, and the strategy has been continued throughout its campaigning. Black has tapped into the zeitgeist, and the fact that he's young, handsome and clearly up-and-coming doesn't hurt either. The biggest dealbreaker here could be the sentiment, held by a considerable number, that the movie cribbed heavily from the documentary The Life and Times of Harvey Milk, and the Academy may decide to give the Original Screenplay award to something either more original or less reliant on the other strong aspects of its production. Whether Van Sant, Penn, Brolin, Franco and co. help or hurt Black's chances is one of the more interesting subplots of this year's Awards. It's worth noting that Milk is the only one of the Original Screenplay nominees with a legitimate chance at other awards (excluding Wall-E's lock for Best Animated Feature), which is atypical of recent years.

Wall-E (Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Story by Andrew Stanton and Pete Docter)

This is not the first instance of Stanton and Docter combining for an Original Screenplay nomination; both men received the same honor in 1995 for the first Toy Story. Nor is it the first example of an animated film competing in this category, as we've seen Finding Nemo and Ratatouille both nominated since Toy Story. However, an animated film has never won, and it doesn't seem as though Wall-E will be the first to do so. It's a commonly-held fact at this point that Wall-E will be going home with the Best Animated Feature award, and considering the snub for Best Picture it seems unlikely that the Academy will feel the need to compensate with an Original Screenplay win. Also, the movie is notably short on dialogue, which doesn't bode well for an award based on writing. Great flick, certainly, but not primarily because of the screenplay.

The Winner: Milk

Milk has the spirit of the times, and it has the benefit of being arguably the best film of the year. As most people have come to realize, the best film doesn't necessarily win the Oscar, and most pundits have conceded that it's almost impossible to ignore the juggernaut that is Slumdog Millionaire in considering the Best Picture award. However, Milk seems to be the critics' choice, and a concessionary Original Screenplay award—deserved, certainly, but with the added incentive of compensating for other snubs—will make sense to a lot of people. That being said, I really wanted to choose Happy-Go-Lucky here, before my good sense kept me in check... keep your eye on that one.

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